鸡蛋月报：1月蛋价涨幅超预期，但以涨基差为主-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inflection point of the laying hen inventory has emerged. As of the end of December 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.344 billion, with a month - on - month decline of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. It is expected that the laying hen inventory will decline gradually [5][19][38]. - In January 2026, egg sales continued to be weak year - on - year but showed a slight month - on - month recovery. After the Spring Festival, the overall demand will remain weak [5][30][38]. - For the spot market, the peak of egg prices is expected to appear soon, and attention should be paid to the support level around 3 yuan after the Spring Festival. For the futures market, the seesaw effect between near - month and far - month contracts will continue. Before the Spring Festival, the market will fluctuate within a range. The opening price of the spot market after the Spring Festival will greatly affect the subsequent market trend [5][8][38]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Price - Spot Market: In January, egg prices rose more than expected. As of January 30, the average price in the producing areas was 4.04 yuan/jin, and in the main selling areas, it was 4.31 yuan/jin. The peak of egg prices is expected to appear soon, and the inventory needs to be digested after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the support level around 3 yuan [7]. - Futures Market: The main contract switched to 03. The near - month contracts were relatively strong, and the far - month contracts starting from 05 were significantly weak. Before the Spring Festival, the market will fluctuate within a range. A double - buy strategy for egg options can be considered before the Spring Festival to gain potential benefits from increased volatility. There is no obvious trend for single - side futures trading [8]. Supply Side 2.1 Elimination of Hens - In January, the average daily price of Hy - Line Brown eliminated hens was 4.46 yuan/jin, showing a recovery compared to December. The elimination volume decreased gradually in January, and the elimination age was postponed. After the Spring Festival, the elimination price may be in the off - season, and the rebound is limited [9][14][17]. 2.2 Inventory and Replenishment - The inventory of laying hens has reached an inflection point and is expected to decline gradually. The replenishment enthusiasm has weakened since the second half of 2025, and the monthly egg - laying chick output in December 2025 was relatively low compared to the same period in 2024. It is expected that the inventory of laying hens in February will continue to decline steadily [19][21]. 2.3 Breeding Profit - In January, the breeding profit recovered significantly. After eliminating seasonal factors, the current profit is still slightly low. It is expected that the era of negative profit in egg - laying hen breeding will continue for some time, and future profits will mainly operate at a low level [27][28]. Demand Side - In January, egg sales continued to be weak year - on - year but showed a slight month - on - month recovery. After the Spring Festival, the overall demand will remain weak. The current inventory has been significantly reduced. The prices of pigs and vegetables are relatively low, which has a certain substitution effect on egg demand [30]. - The pig price will remain at a relatively low level for some time. The vegetable price is at a medium - low level compared to the same period in previous years and is expected to have no positive impact on egg prices [31][33]. Later Outlook and Strategy - Supply and Demand: The inventory of laying hens is expected to decline gradually, and the overall demand after the Spring Festival will be weak [38]. - Viewpoint: The spot price peak is expected to appear soon, and attention should be paid to the support level around 3 yuan after the Spring Festival. The seesaw effect between near - month and far - month futures contracts will continue. The opening price of the spot market after the Spring Festival will greatly affect the subsequent market trend [38][39]. - Strategy: For farmers and spot traders, pay attention to the support level of 3 yuan in February. For futures speculators, conduct interval rolling operations before the Spring Festival [39]. Important Variables - The persistence of elimination, the performance of egg prices after the Spring Festival, and feed costs [40].