大越期货沪镍、不锈钢周报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated and trended stronger, with overall trading volume being average. Jinchuan's ex - factory price remained firm, and the arrival of imported goods alleviated the shortage to some extent. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices rose, with mines continuously raising their quotes. The situation in Indonesia was relatively stable but also showed a slight increase, and the bullish sentiment was strong. Ferronickel prices continued to rise, and the cost line increased. Stainless steel inventories declined slightly, and the de - stocking process was going well. Refined nickel inventories remained at a high level, and the oversupply pattern remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will experience wide - range fluctuations at a high level, and intraday trading is recommended. The main contract of stainless steel will trend stronger, and short - sellers should wait and see [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - Shanghai Nickel Viewpoint: Nickel prices fluctuated and trended stronger this week, with average trading volume. Jinchuan's ex - factory price was firm, and the shortage was alleviated by imported goods. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices rose, ferronickel prices increased, stainless steel inventories decreased, refined nickel inventories were high, and new energy vehicle data had limited impact on nickel demand [8]. - Operation Strategy: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will have wide - range fluctuations at a high level, and intraday trading is the main approach. The main contract of stainless steel will trend stronger, and short - sellers should wait and see [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Industrial Chain Weekly Price Changes: Red soil nickel ore prices increased (NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% up 5.56% to $57; NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% up 8.33% to $52). Battery - grade nickel sulfate price decreased by 4.35% to 33,000 yuan/ton, while the electroplating - grade remained unchanged. Low - nickel ferronickel in Shandong rose 4.55% to 3450 yuan/ton, and high - nickel ferronickel rose 1.46% to 1040 yuan/nickel point. Shanghai electrolytic nickel rose 0.93% to 153,530 yuan/ton, Shanghai Russian nickel rose 0.32% to 145,930 yuan/ton, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price decreased 1.04% to 152,700 yuan/ton. 304 stainless steel rose 1.26% to 15,062.5 yuan/ton [13][14]. - Nickel Ore Market: Nickel ore prices rose by $3 - 4 per wet ton this week, and shipping costs remained stable. As of January 22, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 12.2862 million wet tons, a decrease of 3.52%. In December 2025, nickel ore imports were 1.9928 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40.33% and a year - on - year increase of 31.13%. Philippine mines' quotes jumped continuously this week, while the situation in Indonesia was relatively stable with a slight increase [17]. - Electrolytic Nickel Market: Nickel prices fluctuated higher with average trading volume. Jinchuan's ex - factory price provided strong support, and the arrival of imported goods relieved the shortage pressure. Globally, the nickel market is expected to remain in an oversupply pattern, with traditional demand growth being weak, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide key structural support. In December 2025, China's refined nickel production was 29,058 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.39%. In December 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 23,394.299 tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.64% and a year - on - year increase of 27.88%. Battery - grade nickel sulfate price decreased by 1500 yuan/ton to 33,000 yuan/ton, while the electroplating - grade remained unchanged. LME inventory decreased by 2004 tons to 283,728 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 2614 tons to 50,794 tons [22][25][26]. - Ferronickel Market: Ferronickel prices rose. Low - nickel ferronickel in Shandong rose to 3450 yuan/ton, and high - nickel ferronickel rose to 1040 yuan/nickel point. In December 2025, China's ferronickel production was 21,400 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.14%. In December 2025, China's ferronickel imports were 996,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.2% and a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The inventory of ferronickel in December was 217,200 physical tons, equivalent to 22,400 tons of nickel [43][45][48]. - Stainless Steel Market: The price of 304 stainless steel rose by 1.26% to 15,062.5 yuan/ton. In December, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.2605 million tons, with 300 - series production decreasing by 0.82% month - on - month. Stainless steel imports were 145,000 tons, and exports were 485,000 tons. As of January 23, the national stainless steel inventory was 921,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5600 tons [57][62][65]. - New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales: In December, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.718 million and 1.71 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.3% and 7.2%. From January to December, production and sales were 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 29% and 28.2%. In December, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries was 201.7 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. The domestic power battery installation volume was 98.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.9% and a year - on - year increase of 35.1% [73][76]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, nickel prices continued to fluctuate at a high level. The positions did not increase or decrease significantly, and both long and short positions were doing high - selling and low - buying. The MACD had alternating dead and golden crosses, indicating the possibility of further upward movement. As the 20 - day moving average rose, the lower support line gradually moved up. The high - level fluctuation pattern is expected to continue [79]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary - Impact on Nickel Prices: Nickel ore is neutral - bullish as mines' quotes rise and Indonesia is stable with a slight increase. Ferronickel is neutral - bullish as prices rise and the cost line moves up. Refined nickel is neutral with short - term support from Jinchuan's ex - factory price and long - term oversupply and high inventory. Stainless steel is neutral - bullish with inventory decline and cost increase. New energy is neutral with good production data but the continued substitution of ternary batteries [82]. - Trading Strategy: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will have wide - range fluctuations at a high level, and intraday trading is recommended. The main contract of stainless steel will trend stronger, and short - sellers should wait and see [84][85].