大越期货白糖周报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, sugar prices generally fluctuated and declined, with a possibility of a second bottoming Import volume increased significantly, and the price was lower than that of domestic spot sugar, while downstream sales were weak Currently in the off - season for consumption, the market is generally weak [5] - Near the Chinese New Year holiday, downstream market procurement is inactive Large - volume and low - price imported sugar is squeezing the market share of domestic sugar The main contract 05 is oscillating at a low level, and attention should be paid to the 5200 long - short watershed [6] - Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, a supply surplus in the new year, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices to around 14.5 cents per pound, and increased import impact [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review (Weekly Review) - Sugar prices fluctuated and declined this week with a possible second bottoming Import volume increased significantly, and downstream sales were weak In the off - season for consumption, the market was generally weak [5] - Different institutions have different predictions for the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand situation ISO predicts a 163 - million - ton surplus, DATAGRO has revised it down to 100 million tons from 280 million tons, Czarnikow has raised it to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August estimate, and StoneX predicts a 370 - million - ton surplus [5] - By the end of December 2025, in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugar production in China was 470.18 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 157 million tons, and the sales rate was 33.39% In December 2025, China imported 58 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 19 million tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 6.97 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.08 million tons [5] 3.2 Daily Prompt - Near the Chinese New Year holiday, downstream market procurement is inactive Large - volume and low - price imported sugar is squeezing the market share of domestic sugar The main contract 05 is oscillating at a low level, and attention should be paid to the 5200 long - short watershed [6] 3.3 Today's Focus - No relevant information provided 3.4 Fundamental Data - Bullish factors: Possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, increase in syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose Bearish factors: Increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new year, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices to around 14.5 cents per pound, and increased import impact [7] - Different institutions' predictions for the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand situation: StoneX predicts a 370 - million - ton surplus due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth; ISO predicts a 163 - million - ton surplus as global sugar production is expected to grow by 3.15% while consumption only grows by 0.6%; Datagro predicts a 153 - million - ton surplus as the global supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus [32] - Sugar production - related data from 2024/25 to 2025/26: Sugarcane and beet planting and harvesting areas, sugarcane and beet yields per hectare, sugar production, imports, consumption, and price ranges are provided [33] - The cost and profit of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff from December 2025 to January 2026 are presented [37] 3.5 Position Data - No relevant information provided