棉花周报（1.19-1.23）-20260130

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton generally fluctuated around 14,500. After a previous rapid rise, it is currently digesting the gains, with insufficient upward momentum and support on the downside [4]. - As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream factories are shutting down for the holiday. After a round of rapid increases, downstream enterprises are reluctant to stock up in large quantities and are mainly taking a wait - and - see approach. The main 05 contract has entered a consolidation phase and may fluctuate around 14,500 in the short term [5]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the cotton market. Positive factors include the expected reduction of over 10% in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US compared to the previous period. Negative factors include a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - This week, cotton fluctuated around 14,500. After a previous rapid rise, it is digesting the gains. There are expectations of a reduction of over 10% in the Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026. According to the USDA December report, the production in the 25/26 season is 26.081 million tons, consumption is 25.823 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons. In November, textile and clothing exports were $23.869 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12%. In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 31%, and 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's December 25/26 season data, production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [4]. 2. Daily Prompt - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream factories are on holiday. After the rapid rise of cotton, downstream enterprises are taking a wait - and - see approach. The main 05 contract may fluctuate around 14,500 in the short term [5]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 4. Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: In the 25/26 season, the total global production is 26.004 million tons, a decrease of 77,000 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 1% and an increase of 208,000 tons compared to the previous year. Total consumption is 25.891 million tons, an increase of 68,000 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 0.4% and a decrease of 5,000 tons compared to the previous year. Total imports are 9.527 million tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 2% and an increase of 157,000 tons compared to the previous year. Total exports are 9.53 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 3% and an increase of 300,000 tons compared to the previous year. The ending inventory is 16.217 million tons, a decrease of 324,000 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 1% and an increase of 157,000 tons compared to the previous year [11][12]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast (November 2025): In the 25/26 season, the area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, the production is 25.39956 million tons, the beginning inventory is 15.83577 million tons, imports are 9.71442 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, exports are 9.71412 million tons, the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 0.65 [14]. - Ministry of Agriculture Data: In the 25/26 season, the beginning inventory is 9.853 million tons, production is 7.278 million tons, imports are 1.1 million tons, consumption is 8.1 million tons, and the ending inventory is 10.116 million tons [16]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report