大越期货PVC期货周报-20260130

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the 05 contract showed an upward trend. Next week, demand may remain weak, and with a projected decrease in maintenance and a slight increase in scheduled production, the market may experience narrow - range adjustments [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - This week, the 05 contract opened at 4,806 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 4,921 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 2.39% [5]. - In December 2025, PVC production was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.70%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.74%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 344,650 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 137,430 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.86%. Supply pressure decreased this week. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and scheduled production is expected to increase slightly [5]. - The overall downstream operating rate was 44.86%, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, and paste resin were also higher than the historical average, while the operating rate of downstream films decreased by 0.36 percentage points. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain weak [5]. - The profit of calcium carbide method was - 799.55 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 20.60%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 49.44 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 64.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 1,908.23 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in profit of 3.80%, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may face pressure [6]. - Factory inventory was 308,109 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 223,969 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.78%, and ethylene factory inventory was 84,140 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.69%. Social inventory was 576,486 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.65%. The inventory days of production enterprises was 5.1 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92%. Overall inventory is at a neutral level [6]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - The report presents the basis trend, price and trading volume trends of the main contract, and the spread analysis of the main contract through charts, but no specific text analysis is provided [10][13][16]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, etc. of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit and consumption of chlor - alkali in Shandong [19][22][25][27][30]. - PVC Supply Trend: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily and weekly production, and weekly maintenance volume of calcium carbide and ethylene methods through charts [32][34]. - Demand Trend: It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream operating rate of PVC, and the cost, profit, production, and consumption of paste resin. It also presents real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment data [37][39][41][45][47]. - Inventory: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [49]. - Ethylene Method: It shows the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and the price difference of ethylene FOB and vinyl chloride import through charts [51]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the monthly export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference of PVC from November 2024 to December 2025 [54]. 3.4 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to experience narrow - range adjustments next week [58].