建信期货豆粕月报-20260130

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 1 - month report finalized the production of US soybeans in 2025, with the output significantly lower than market expectations. The South American supply pressure, especially from Brazil's expected bumper harvest, is large. The only relatively positive factor is the potential impact of high - temperature and drought on Argentina's soybean yield [7][57][58]. - In January, the trading volume of soybean meal increased again. There was pre - holiday stockpiling demand and concerns about supply in March - April. The terminal demand is relatively stable [7][58]. - The 05 basis of the spot may be strong in February. The CBOT soybean futures may trade in a narrow range in the next month, and the upward space of domestic soybean meal 05 contract is limited. It is recommended to treat it as a narrow - range shock before the holiday, and be cautiously bearish after the rebound under the neutral assumption of soybean auction quantity and Argentina's weather [7][58][59]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Upstream: Planting and Export 1.1 Soybean Supply - The USDA January report finalized the production of US soybeans in 2025. Although the yield was high, the export decreased and the ending inventory increased, making the supply - demand relationship more relaxed. The USDA estimated that Brazil's soybean output would reach 178 million tons and Argentina's would reach 4.85 million tons [9]. - Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing, and the overall progress is normal with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Argentina has basically completed sowing and will enter the critical growth stage in February. The weather in southern Brazil and Argentina is a concern [10]. 1.2 Exports of Major Producing Countries - The US Department of Agriculture expects Brazil's soybean exports in 2025/26 to reach 114 million tons, with good export prospects and likely to set a new record. The export volume in December and the cumulative export volume from October showed significant year - on - year growth [17][18]. - The US Department of Agriculture predicts that US soybean exports in 2025/26 will be 42.86 million tons, a year - on - year decrease. As of January 22, the cumulative export sales volume was lower than the same period last year, and the export completion rate was also lower [19][20][22]. Mid - stream: China's Soybean Import and Pressing 2.1 China's Soybean Import - In December, China imported 8.044 million tons of soybeans. The cumulative import from October to December in 2025/26 increased by 10.6% year - on - year. It is expected to set a new record in 2025. The arrival volume is expected to decrease seasonally, and the port inventory will decline until April [27][30]. 2.2 China's Soybean Pressing and Inventory - As of January 29, the spot and futures margin of Brazilian soybeans were 350 yuan/ton and 16 yuan/ton respectively, and those of US Gulf soybeans were 38 yuan/ton and - 296 yuan/ton. The start - up rate and pressing volume are expected to remain low before the Spring Festival. The soybean inventory is in the destocking stage, and attention should be paid to the impact of soybean auctions from February to March [40][42]. Downstream: Feed and Aquaculture 3.1 Soybean Meal Transaction and Inventory - As of January 23, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 815,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 111%. In January, the trading volume of soybean meal increased again due to pre - holiday stockpiling and concerns about future supply [44][47]. 3.2 Pig Farming - As of January 23, the average profit per pig for self - breeding and self - raising was 43.35 yuan/head, and that for purchasing piglets was 115.84 yuan/head. The pig slaughter volume from January to May is estimated, and attention should be paid to the support of the high inventory in the first quarter for soybean meal demand. The national industrial feed production in 2025 maintained a good trend, and it is expected to be close to that in 2025 in the first half of 2026 [50][51]. 3.3 Poultry Farming - At the end of January, the price of white - feather broilers was slightly strong, and the market supply was sufficient. The egg - laying hen farming profit recovered in January, and the inventory has shown a downward trend, and it is expected to decline slowly [54][55]. Later Outlook and Strategy - The supply pressure in the new year is still large. The demand for soybean meal increased in January, and the terminal demand is relatively stable. The spot basis may be strong in February. Futures may trade in a narrow range, and it is recommended to be cautiously bearish after the rebound under neutral assumptions [57][58][59]. - Strategies: Spot merchants can expect the basis to be strong in February; futures speculators can expect a narrow - range shock before the holiday and higher volatility after the holiday, and be cautiously bearish after the rebound under neutral assumptions [59]. - Important variables: China's continued purchase of US soybeans, Argentina's weather, and the frequency and quantity of imported soybean auctions [60].