钢矿周报（1.19-1.23）-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel and ore prices fluctuated and declined, with the bullish sentiment cooling down, and fundamentals being the dominant factor. The accumulation of iron ore inventory at ports finally affected the market, with significant long - position liquidation during the week and a large price drop. Rebar and hot - rolled coils followed the market down. The continuous decline in weekly apparent demand put pressure on the market. The current weak fundamental demand is difficult to change, and the sentiment - driven rally due to positive expectations is unsustainable. The report maintains a view of a seasonally weak market with a bias towards a downward trend, suggesting focus on the accumulation of steel social inventory and the intensity of steel mills' iron ore restocking [65]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis 3.1.1 One - week Data Changes - PB powder price decreased from 819 yuan/wet ton to 802 yuan/wet ton, a drop of 17 yuan/wet ton; Ba Hun powder price decreased from 844 yuan/wet ton to 827 yuan/wet ton, a drop of 17 yuan/wet ton [6]. - PB powder spot landing profit decreased from 23.21 yuan/wet ton to 18.82 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 4.39 yuan/wet ton; Ba Hun powder spot landing profit decreased from 16.74 yuan/wet ton to 12.12 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 4.62 yuan/wet ton [6]. - Australian shipments to China decreased from 15.933 million tons to 13.262 million tons, a decrease of 2.671 million tons; Brazilian shipments decreased from 6.643 million tons to 5.537 million tons, a decrease of 1.106 million tons [6]. - Imported iron ore port inventory increased from 172.887 million tons to 174.9653 million tons, an increase of 2.0783 million tons; imported iron ore arrival volume decreased from 30.15 million tons to 28.977 million tons, a decrease of 1.173 million tons [6]. - Imported iron ore port clearance volume decreased from 3.3502 million tons to 3.2052 million tons, a decrease of 0.145 million tons; iron ore port daily trading volume decreased from 1.1123 million tons to 0.792 million tons, a decrease of 0.3203 million tons [6]. - Average daily hot - metal output increased from 2.2801 million tons to 2.281 million tons, an increase of 0.0009 million tons; steel enterprise profitability rate increased from 39.83% to 40.69%, an increase of 0.86 percentage points [6]. 3.2 Market Status Analysis 3.2.1 One - week Data Changes - Shanghai rebar price decreased from 3300 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, a drop of 30 yuan/ton; Shanghai hot - rolled coil price decreased from 3300 yuan/ton to 3290 yuan/ton, a drop of 10 yuan/ton [34]. - Blast furnace operating rate decreased from 78.84% to 78.68%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; electric furnace operating rate decreased from 72.97% to 72.68%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points [34]. - Rebar blast furnace profit decreased from 72 yuan/ton to 61 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton; hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit increased from - 4 yuan/ton to 1 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton [34]. - Rebar electric furnace profit decreased from - 46 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton [34]. - Rebar weekly output increased from 1.903 million tons to 1.9955 million tons, an increase of 0.0925 million tons; hot - rolled coil weekly output decreased from 3.0836 million tons to 3.0541 million tons, a decrease of 0.0295 million tons [34]. - Rebar weekly social inventory increased from 2.9541 million tons to 3.0312 million tons, an increase of 0.0771 million tons; rebar weekly enterprise inventory increased from 1.4266 million tons to 1.4898 million tons, an increase of 0.0632 million tons [36]. - Hot - rolled coil weekly social inventory decreased from 2.858 million tons to 2.8114 million tons, a decrease of 0.0466 million tons; hot - rolled coil weekly enterprise inventory increased from 0.7653 million tons to 0.7664 million tons, an increase of 0.0011 million tons [36]. - Rebar weekly apparent consumption decreased from 1.9034 million tons to 1.8552 million tons, a decrease of 0.0482 million tons; hot - rolled coil weekly apparent consumption decreased from 3.1416 million tons to 3.0996 million tons, a decrease of 0.042 million tons [36]. - Building materials trading volume decreased from 95,129 tons to 77,924 tons, a decrease of 17,205 tons [36]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - The report also provides various historical data charts related to supply - demand analysis, including blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates, rebar and hot - rolled coil actual production, steel profits, steel inventories, building materials trading volume, steel apparent consumption, steel exports, real - estate investment and sales, housing construction area, and manufacturing PMI [42][46][50]. However, specific numerical changes are not further elaborated in the text part of the report.