大越期货碳酸锂期货周报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 05 contract showed an upward trend. The opening price on Monday was 147,600 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 181,520 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 22.98%. It is expected that next week, the supply side will continue to increase production, the demand side will decrease, and the cost will remain low. The futures market may undergo more bullish oscillatory adjustments [4][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - Supply Side: This week, the production of lithium carbonate was 22,217 tons, higher than the historical average. Lithium spodumene production was 13,914 tons, a 1.48% decrease from the previous period; lithium mica production was 2,882 tons, a 1.83% decrease; salt lake production was 3,115 tons, a 0.95% decrease; and recycling production was 2,306 tons, a 3.91% decrease [4]. - Demand Side: In December 2025, the demand for lithium carbonate was 130,118 physical tons, a 2.49% decrease from the previous period. The predicted demand for next month is 117,163 physical tons, a 9.95% increase. The export volume in December 2025 was 912 physical tons, a 20.16% increase, and the predicted export volume for next month is 410 physical tons, a 55.04% increase. In December 2025, the production of power batteries was 206.77 MWH, a 3.45% increase; among them, the production of ternary batteries was 33.27 MWH, a 2.86% decrease, and the production of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 163.09 MWH, a 5.66% increase. The installed capacity of power batteries was 98,100 MWH, a 4.92% increase. The production of energy - storage batteries was 62.5 GWH, an 8.64% increase, and a 1.02% increase is predicted for next month. In November 2025, the total winning bid capacity of energy - storage batteries was 16.27 GWH, a 0.48% decrease [5]. - Cost: The cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate was 159,791 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3.30%, and the production income was 8,980 yuan/ton, resulting in a profit. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica was 153,199 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.31%, and the production income was 11,911 yuan/ton, resulting in a profit. The production cost on the recycling side was generally higher than that on the ore side, and the production income was negative, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost on the salt - lake side was 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that on the ore side, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [6]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 19,834 tons, a 0.54% increase; the downstream inventory was 37,592 tons, a 5.44% increase; other inventories were 51,470 tons, a 5.21% decrease; the total inventory was 108,896 tons, a 0.71% decrease [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Market - Lithium Carbonate Price - Basis: The report shows the trends of the main contract of lithium carbonate, the spot price, and the basis [11]. - Supply - Lithium Ore: It includes the price trends of lithium ore, the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines, the import volume of lithium concentrate, the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore, and the inventory of lithium ore [14]. - Supply - Lithium Carbonate: It involves the weekly and monthly production, capacity, and import volume of lithium carbonate from different sources, as well as the monthly supply - demand balance table [20]. - Supply - Lithium Hydroxide: It includes the weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and monthly supply - demand balance table of lithium hydroxide [28]. - Lithium Compound Cost - Profit: It shows the cost - profit situations of externally purchased spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, battery recycling, and other aspects, as well as the processing cost composition [33]. - Inventory: It presents the trends of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide inventories [43]. - Demand - Lithium Battery: It includes the price trends, production, installed capacity, and export volume of lithium batteries [44]. - Demand - Ternary Precursor: It involves the price, cost, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors [49]. - Demand - Ternary Material: It includes the price, cost - profit, processing fee, production, and inventory of ternary materials [55]. - Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium: It shows the price, production cost, production, and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium [60]. - Demand - New Energy Vehicle: It includes the production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, and inventory index of new energy vehicles [69]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend. The report provides the trading volume, opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price of the LC main contract, as well as the moving average data. It is expected that next week, the futures market may undergo more bullish oscillatory adjustments [76][79].