中加贸易关系缓和影响过去，菜粕探底回升（菜粕周报1.19-1.23）-20260130

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to rapeseed meal, indicating a balanced view on its investment prospects [8] Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal prices first rose and then fell, influenced by the rebound of soybean meal and technical consolidation. The market returned to a short - term oscillation due to the potential cancellation of restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports by China. In the short term, the market is weakly oscillating due to the easing of China - Canada trade relations, but in the medium term, it will maintain a range - bound pattern. The spot demand for rapeseed meal is in the off - season, but the low inventory supports the market, and the post - Spring Festival demand expectation is good [8] - The market is currently focused on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [11] - After the impact of the improvement in China - Canada trade relations and the digestion of overall negative factors, rapeseed meal will maintain an oscillating pattern. Future trends depend on the development of China - Canada trade relations [8] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry is in the off - season after the long holiday. The supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Due to China - Canada trade issues, the short - term export of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decrease, reducing domestic supply [10] - With the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, China - Canada trade relations have improved in the short term. The mutual tariffs are expected to be gradually cancelled, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume [10] - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [10] - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is ongoing. The reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodity prices [10] 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factors: The demand for rapeseed meal in China after the Spring Festival is expected to be good, and the rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills is under no pressure [11] - Bearish Factors: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal is currently in the off - season, and the improvement in China - Canada trade relations means that China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume [11] - Main Logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [11] 4. Fundamental Data - Supply - demand Balance Sheets: Detailed supply - demand balance sheets for domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2016 - 2025 are provided, including data on harvest area, production, inventory, and consumption [16][18] - Import and Production: There were no arrivals of imported rapeseed in January, and the import cost was affected by tariff expectations. The rapeseed processing volume of oil mills remained at zero, and the rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories of oil mills were at low levels [19][21][23] - Aquaculture: Aquaculture fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable. Data on China's aquatic product, fish, shellfish, and shrimp - crab production, as well as OECD's estimates of China's fish production and imports, are provided [25][27][31] - Price: Rapeseed meal futures rebounded after reaching the bottom, while the spot price was relatively stable, with the spot price at a relatively high premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal widened, and the price difference of the 2605 contract rebounded to a high level [33][38] 5. Position Data - The short positions of the main players increased, and funds flowed out, indicating a bearish sentiment [8] 6. Rapeseed Meal Trading Strategy - Futures: In the short term, it will return to range - bound trading. The RM2605 contract will oscillate between 2200 and 2400 in the short term. Traders can either trade short - term or wait and see [13] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [13] 7. Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal is weakly oscillating due to the improvement in China - Canada trade relations. The KDJ indicator has rebounded from the low - level oscillation, and the MACD is undergoing technical adjustment with the green energy narrowing. In the short term, it is weakly oscillating, and in the medium term, it is oscillating strongly. Future trends depend on policy and soybean meal trends [43] 8. Next Week's Focus Points - Most Important: The growth and harvest weather conditions in South American soybean - producing areas, the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic processing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [45] - Second - most Important: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, the rapeseed meal inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [45] - Third - most Important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45]