饲料养殖周度报告-20260130

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Views - In the short term, the soybean meal market sentiment declines as US soybean futures fall and pre - holiday stocking nears the end. Local oil mills resume production, so attention should be paid to the volatility risk of rapeseed meal [32]. - In the medium to long term, under the global supply - loose fundamental situation, the overall upside space is limited [33]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The prices of major feed and livestock futures and spot products in China show different trends. For example, the M2605 soybean meal futures contract closed at 2802 yuan on January 29, up 1.23% from the previous week; the RM605 rapeseed meal futures contract closed at 2325 yuan, up 3.33% [2]. Fundamental Analysis Cost - end - Recent rainfall has been beneficial, but Argentina's soybean and corn crops still need more precipitation. As of the week ending January 22, 2026, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 819,000 tons, a 67% decrease from the previous week. China's purchases from the US dropped significantly. The export sales volume of US soybeans this year is expected to decrease by 16% compared with last year. The 2025/26 Brazilian soybean export forecast is 110 million tons, a 6.7% increase from the previous year [9]. Supply - import - From January to December 2025, Brazil dominated China's soybean import market with an import value of about 263.91 billion yuan, accounting for 73.27%. The US and Argentina followed. As of January 29, the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 452.00 US dollars per ton, up 4 US dollars from the previous week; the CNF import price of US West Coast soybeans was 478.00 US dollars per ton, up 7 US dollars [9][14]. Supply - pressing - As of the week ending January 29, the soybean pressing profit was 71.95 yuan per ton, up 63.20 yuan from the previous week. As of the week ending January 23, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.2372 million tons, down 45,500 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 57%, down 1 percentage point [16]. Inventory - As of January 29, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.5048 million tons, up 7,100 tons from the previous week, at a very high level in the past five years. As of January 23, the bean - meal inventory of oil mills was 888,100 tons, down 56,000 tons from the previous week, also at a very high level in the past five years [20]. Demand - As of January 23, the average daily sales volume of domestic mainstream oil mills' bean - meal was 178,700 tons, down 452,800 tons from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the past five years [26]. Strategy Recommendation Short - term - The soybean meal market sentiment weakens due to the fall of US soybean futures and the end of pre - holiday stocking. Local oil mills resume production, and attention should be paid to the volatility risk of rapeseed meal [32]. Medium - to - long - term - Under the global supply - loose fundamental situation, the overall upside space is limited [33]. Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - Concerns include产区 weather, trade relations, US soybean exports to China, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [34].