建信期货棉花日报-20260130

Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: January 30, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton closed up with a significant reduction in trading volume. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 was 16,103 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream basis for machine - picked cotton of Grade 31, double 29/impurity within 3 in southern Xinjiang's Kashgar in the 2025/26 season was mostly above CF05 + 950, and the basis in the 950 - 1000 range decreased significantly. In northern Xinjiang, it was mostly above 1100, with a small amount below this price, and many quotes were close to 1200 or above, all for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [7]. - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was differentiated. Some inland spinning enterprises gradually reduced production capacity, small - scale spinning enterprises began to take holidays, and orders were not sustainable, mainly for inventory preparation; Xinjiang spinning enterprises continued to maintain a certain level of sales and high operation rates. The demand in the all - cotton grey fabric market decreased, fabric mills were gradually winding up, and inquiries in the spot market decreased. In terms of varieties, the sales of common varieties such as regular C32S, C21S and below yarn cards were not as good as before, and the current prices were mainly stable [7]. - Macroeconomically, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate range unchanged, in line with market expectations, and the sentiment in the commodity market remained strong. Overseas, according to CONAB, as of January 24, the cotton planting in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 60.6% completed, a 24.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and 14.3 percentage points faster than the same period last year. After the first - crop soybean harvest in Mato Grosso, the cotton planting progress increased rapidly. In the domestic market, the expected decrease in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang for the 2026/27 season has been partially factored in, and the market news indicates that the reduction plan will be gradually implemented over 3 - 5 years. On the demand side, downstream procurement has weakened overall since late January, and the operation rate has been continuously decreasing recently. The market is concerned about the demand performance during the traditional peak season after the Spring Festival. Boosted by macro factors, Zhengzhou cotton closed up with a reduction in positions, testing the previous high resistance level. If there is no effective breakthrough, it may maintain range - bound adjustment [8]. Group 3: Industry News - According to CONAB, as of the week of January 24, the cotton planting rate in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 60.6%, compared with 36.3% in the previous week, 46.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 40.9% [9]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the yarn output of large - scale enterprises in December 2025 was 2.132 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. The cumulative yarn output from January to December was 22.158 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. The cloth output of large - scale enterprises in December 2025 was 3.01 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The cumulative cloth output from January to December was 30.67 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.2% [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt total, US dollar against RMB, and US dollar against Indian rupee, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [16][18][19][21][28][30]