建信期货原油日报-20260130

Report Information - Report Name: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Date: January 30, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The current crude oil market is driven by both geopolitical premiums and expectations of supply surplus. Tensions in the Iran situation support oil prices, but have not had a substantial impact on supply. Continued attention should be paid to the Middle East situation, and chasing long positions should be done with caution [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: WTI's opening price was $62.58, closing at $63.50, with a high of $63.57, a low of $62.07, a daily increase of 1.78%, and a trading volume of 32.95 million lots. Brent's opening price was $66.62, closing at $67.69, with a high of $67.71, a low of $66.14, a daily increase of 1.65%, and a trading volume of 49.71 million lots. SC's opening price was 462.1 yuan/barrel, closing at 472.5 yuan/barrel, with a high of 475.5 yuan/barrel, a low of 461.1 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 3.69%, and a trading volume of 14.43 million lots [6] - Supply and Demand: Three major institutions have successively released their January reports, generally indicating a pessimistic outlook. Both the IEA and EIA expect the market to continue accumulating inventories in 2026, and the inventory accumulation rate has accelerated after the supply and demand adjustments in the January report. Weekly data shows that the operating rate of US refineries has declined month-on-month, and crude oil and refined oil inventories have increased across the board, also indicating a bearish trend [7] - Geopolitical Situation: On the 22nd, Trump announced that the US would deploy more troops to Iran. The possibility of a direct conflict is relatively low. The tension in the Iran situation supports oil prices, but has not yet had a substantial impact on supply [7] 2. Industry News - Trump is considering new major strikes against Iran, including air strikes on Iranian leaders and security officials, as well as attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and government agencies. He has not yet made a final decision [8] - The CEO of Baker Hughes Oilfield Services said that Venezuela can gradually increase its crude oil production in the short term, but a comprehensive and in - depth reform is needed to truly and significantly restore the country's oil production [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [10][14][21][23]