瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1770 - 1830 in the short - term [6] - The domestic urea market showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week, with the average price in Shandong rising by 45 yuan/ton week - on - week [7] - The recovery of some previously overhauled devices has led to an increase in domestic urea production, and the output is expected to increase slightly next week [7] - The pre - Spring Festival agricultural fertilizer demand in some areas is ongoing but with limited growth, and industrial demand's support for urea has weakened [7] - The domestic urea enterprise inventory has little change, and there is still a slight upward trend before the Spring Festival [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1770 and 1830 in the short - term [6] - Market review: The domestic urea market rose first and then fell this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized particles in Shandong reached 1740 - 1780 yuan/ton, with the average price up 45 yuan/ton week - on - week. Urea factories received orders smoothly, and downstream follow - up was okay [7] - Market outlook: Production is expected to increase slightly. Agricultural demand has limited growth, and industrial demand support has weakened. Inventory has a slight upward trend before the Spring Festival [7] 3.2. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 0.11% [11] - Inter - delivery spread: As of January 30, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 25 [13] - Position analysis: Not elaborated in detail in the provided content - Warehouse receipt trend: As of January 29, there were 12699 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, a decrease of 575 from last week [21] 3.3. Spot Market - Domestic price trend: As of January 29, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1780 yuan/ton, up 30; in Jiangsu, it was 1790 yuan/ton, up 40 [26] - Foreign price trend: As of January 29, the FOB price of urea in China was 420 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton from last week [30] - Basis trend: As of January 29, the urea basis was - 37 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton from last week [35] 3.4. Upstream Situation - Coal and natural gas prices: As of January 28, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of January 29, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.88 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 1.48 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [39] 3.5. Industry Situation - Capacity utilization and output: As of January 29, China's urea production was 145.49 tons, up 3.11 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 2.18%. The capacity utilization rate was 88.27%, up 1.88% from the previous period [42] - Inventory: As of January 29, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 14.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.46%. As of January 28, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 94.49 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12% [45] - Export situation: In December 2025, urea exports were 27.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 53.75% [48] 3.6. Downstream Situation - Compound fertilizer and melamine: As of January 29, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 41.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.62 percentage points. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 66.45%, an increase of 2.80 percentage points from last week [51]