瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20260130

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the fundamentals of the natural rubber market resonated with macro - sentiment, leading to an oscillating upward trend in rubber prices. The offer price of imported rubber rose, while factories mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude, with weaker purchasing sentiment compared to last week. The spot price of domestic natural rubber increased, and the futures market's upward trend improved market trading sentiment, with downstream inquiry activity slightly better and cautious procurement based on rigid demand, but actual orders were average [7]. - Currently, the main domestic natural rubber producing areas are in the off - season, and the production in northern Thailand and north - central Vietnam is transitioning to a reduction and then a halt, resulting in a decrease in total supply. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao ports has slightly decreased, with bonded warehouses showing a reduction and the inventory accumulation in general trade warehouses significantly narrowing. Overseas supply has entered a seasonal reduction phase, with fewer ship arrivals compared to the previous period. The inbound volume at Qingdao warehouses has started to decline. The continuous decline in rubber prices in the first ten days of the month stimulated downstream replenishment enthusiasm, increasing the overall outbound volume and narrowing the month - on - month inventory accumulation in general trade [7]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated this week. Some semi - steel tire sample enterprises, supported by foreign trade orders, slightly increased their production schedules, which supported the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises. The shipment of all - steel tires was mediocre, and some enterprises still controlled production, slightly dragging down the capacity utilization rate. Recently, the prices of various raw materials have remained high. Under cost pressure, some sample enterprises have arranged the "Spring Festival" holiday from the end of January to early February, and the production schedules are gradually coming to an end, which will drag down the overall capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may decline [7]. - It is recommended that the ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 17,000 in the short term, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,000 - 13,600 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The natural rubber market's fundamentals and macro - sentiment combined to push rubber prices up in an oscillating manner. Imported rubber offers rose, but factory purchasing was weak. Domestic spot prices increased, and downstream inquiry improved slightly with cautious procurement [7]. - Market Outlook: Supply is decreasing as domestic main producing areas are in the off - season and overseas supply is seasonally reducing. Qingdao port inventory is showing a slight decline. Demand - side capacity utilization of tire enterprises is likely to decline in the short term due to cost pressure and holiday arrangements [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 16,000 - 17,000, and the nr2604 contract between 13,000 - 13,600 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose 0.28% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - gauge rubber rose 1.18% week - on - week [10]. - As of January 30, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was 135, and the spread between the March and April contracts of 20 - gauge rubber was - 30 [20]. - As of January 29, the Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 110,970 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from last week; the 20 - gauge rubber warehouse receipts were 53,827 tons, a decrease of 1,512 tons from last week [26]. - Spot Market - As of January 29, the price of state - owned full - latex was 16,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 450 yuan/ton from last week [30]. - As of January 29, the basis of 20 - gauge rubber was 418 yuan/ton, a decrease of 486 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 1,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.3 Industry Conditions - Upstream - As of January 29, the price of field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 58.3 (+0.7) Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 53.5 (+0.5) Thai baht/kg. As of January 30, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 4 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars/ton from last week [39]. - The Yunnan and Hainan producing areas in China are in the off - season [42]. - Import and Inventory - In December 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% [48]. - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decrease of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse samples decreased by 6.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.65 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.41 percentage points [52]. - Downstream - As of January 29, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.86 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 50.96 percentage points [55]. - In December 2025, China's tire export volume was 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, China's cumulative tire exports were 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 251,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.79%. From January to December, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 3.2154 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.27%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 413,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15% and a year - on - year increase of 8.40%. From January to December, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 4.8586 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.87% [58]. - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared to November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared to 84,200 vehicles in the same period last year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles [61]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis No relevant content provided.