油料周报-20260201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Meal Market - Soybean Meal: Supply is abundant, inventory is high year - on - year, and demand is weak due to poor breeding profits [6]. - Rapeseed Meal: Supply and demand are both weak, and it is significantly suppressed by soybean meal substitution. Attention should be paid to the supply increase expectation brought by the easing of China - Canada trade relations [3]. 2.2 Oil Market - Soybean Oil: Pre - holiday stocking supports inventory reduction, but the high inventory limits the rebound height [38]. - Palm Oil: The production reduction in producing areas provides strong support, but the domestic inventory is accumulating, showing a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic" [45]. - Rapeseed Oil: The bottoming - out inventory supports short - term prices, but the hype about the biodiesel theme has cooled down, and it faces import impact in the long term [52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rapeseed Meal - Overall Tone: Supply and demand are both weak, and it is significantly suppressed by soybean meal substitution. Pay attention to the supply increase expectation brought by the easing of China - Canada trade relations [3]. - Supply Side: Coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory is at a low level, and there is a short - term shortage of spot supply. After the easing of China - Canada trade relations, the market expects a large amount of imported rapeseed to arrive at ports after the Spring Festival, with huge long - term supply pressure [3]. - Demand Side: It is in the traditional off - season of aquaculture, and the rigid demand is extremely weak. The narrowing of the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference makes rapeseed meal lose its cost - effectiveness advantage, and its demand is further squeezed [3]. - Inventory: The port granular meal inventory is at a moderately high level. Although the short - term inventory has slightly declined due to the decrease in the startup rate, the overall inventory reduction rhythm is not smooth, and the inventory pressure is mainly reflected in the long - term expectation [4]. 3.2 Soybean Meal - Overall Tone: Supply is abundant, inventory is high year - on - year, and demand is weak due to poor breeding profits [6]. - Supply Side: The import volume of soybeans is large, the port soybean inventory is abundant, and the oil mills' raw material supply is sufficient. The oil mills' startup rate remains at a medium - high level, and the current spot output is still abundant. The new - crop soybeans in Brazil are expected to have a good harvest, and the export pressure will be transmitted to the Chinese market [6]. - Demand Side: The downstream demand shows a "not - prosperous in the peak season" phenomenon. The low pig price has frustrated the enthusiasm for replenishing stocks, and feed enterprises and farmers are cautious about pre - holiday stocking [6]. - Inventory: It is at a historically high level. Although there has been a slight inventory reduction recently, the total inventory is still about 70% higher than that of last year, which significantly suppresses the price [6]. 3.3 Soybean Oil - Overall Tone: Pre - holiday stocking supports inventory reduction, but the high inventory limits the rebound height [38]. - Supply Side: The soybean oil output continues to increase due to the high - level soybean crushing volume, and the supply is very sufficient. The spot crushing profit is on the verge of loss but does not significantly affect the oil mills' startup rhythm [40][41]. - Demand Side: Driven by pre - holiday stocking demand, the提货 speed of small and medium - sized packaged oils and the catering sector has accelerated. The low or inverted soybean - palm oil price difference makes soybean oil more cost - effective, replacing some palm oil. The overseas biodiesel theme has also driven the price rebound to some extent [42]. - Inventory: The commercial inventory is about 95 - 96 tons, at a relatively high level in the same period of history. It is in the inventory reduction cycle, but the large inventory base still limits the price increase space [43][44]. 3.4 Palm Oil - Overall Tone: The production reduction in producing areas provides strong support, but the domestic inventory is accumulating, showing a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic" [45]. - Supply Side: Malaysia and Indonesia are in the seasonal production reduction cycle, and the production in January decreased significantly. The serious inversion of import profit has limited the enthusiasm for domestic ship purchases, resulting in fewer new ship purchases [46][47]. - Demand Side: The edible demand is compressed due to low - temperature blending requirements and the lack of price advantage compared with soybean oil. The postponement of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan has affected the demand expectation, but the implementation of B40 still provides a rigid bottom - line support [48][49]. - Inventory: The domestic commercial inventory is still slightly high. Although imports have decreased, the inventory has increased due to weak consumption, which restricts the domestic price from rising in line with the overseas market [50][51]. 3.5 Rapeseed Oil - Overall Tone: The bottoming - out inventory supports short - term prices, but the hype about the biodiesel theme has cooled down, and it faces import impact in the long term [52]. - Supply Side: Due to the shortage of rapeseed in some oil mills in late January, the spot output of rapeseed oil has decreased periodically. The market is highly concerned about the arrival rhythm of Australian rapeseed and the import expectation of rapeseed oil after the resumption of China - Canada trade, with a "tight in the near term and loose in the long term" supply characteristic [53][54]. - Demand Side: The main demand is the pre - Spring Festival small - package stocking demand, and the demand in traditional consumption areas such as Sichuan and Chongqing is acceptable. The US biodiesel policy and EU demand expectation bring some positive support, but the actual export increase is limited [55][56]. - Inventory: The rapeseed oil inventory in East China and coastal areas is at a moderately low level in the same period of history. It is in the continuous inventory reduction stage, and the marginal tightening of inventory is the main reason for the recent stronger price of rapeseed oil than other oils [57][58].