策略周报：波动明显上升，适度回归稳健-20260201

Group 1 - The report indicates that market volatility has significantly increased, suggesting a return to a more stable investment approach as the market approaches the holiday season [4][14] - The bond market is showing signs of support, with the central bank's clear stance on maintaining liquidity, which is expected to help stabilize the market during the holiday period [3][13] - The report highlights that the 10-year government bond yield is anticipated to gradually decline to around 1.80%, emphasizing the importance of high-yield bond allocations [3][13] Group 2 - The equity market is experiencing increased volatility, with a shift towards more defensive sectors such as liquor and real estate, indicating a potential end to the current market rotation [4][14] - The report notes that the A-share market has shown a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 0.44% and the Wind All A Index down by 1.59% [11] - The report suggests that investors should consider reducing exposure to sectors lacking earnings support and increase holdings in high-dividend stocks to mitigate portfolio volatility [4][14] Group 3 - The report provides a review of significant events, including the announcement of the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate between 3.50% and 3.75%, reflecting a cautious approach to economic conditions [10] - It also mentions that the profit of large-scale industrial enterprises in China increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a stable economic environment [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming economic indicators, such as the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and U.S. non-farm payroll data [27]