贵金属日评-20260202

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly due to factors such as the restructuring of the international political and economic landscape, the Fed's loose monetary policy, and the improvement of the global economic growth outlook. However, the large influx of speculative funds has also increased the volatility of precious metal prices. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish stance but control their position sizes, and short hedgers should appropriately reduce their hedging ratios [4]. - In the medium term, geopolitical risks, safe - haven demand from the US mid - term elections, liquidity premiums from global central bank easing, and the weakening of the US dollar will drive London gold to 5500 - 6000 US dollars per ounce in 2026. Silver will outperform gold, with the gold - silver ratio expected to fall to 40 - 45, and London silver's target price at 120 - 150 US dollars per ounce. The performance ranking of precious metals in 2026 is silver > platinum > palladium > gold > 10%. Investors are recommended to take a bullish approach, and medium - to long - term investors can gradually build positions, with a focus on gold and a small amount of silver, platinum, and palladium. Stable investors can consider arbitrage opportunities by going long on silver and platinum and short on gold. Long hedgers should gradually establish hedging positions, and short hedgers should reduce their hedging ratios [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metal Market Conditions and Outlook - Intraday Market: Trump's tariff threats and the news of announcing the Fed chair nominee led to a rebound in the US dollar and some long - position profit - taking. The precious metal sector declined by over 5%, and London gold fell to around 5100 US dollars per ounce [4]. - Domestic Precious Metal Market: The closing prices of all domestic precious metal indices decreased. The decline of the Guangzhou Futures Palladium Index was the largest at - 12.02%, and the decline of the Shanghai Gold Index was - 7.07% [5]. - Medium - term Market: Due to Trump's policy shift, the Fed's and ECB's balance - sheet expansion, and other factors, the US dollar will be weak. Geopolitical risks, safe - haven demand, liquidity premiums, and the weak US dollar will drive precious metals higher. Silver will be stronger than gold, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline [6]. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Iran will hold a military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz from February 1st to 2nd, including live - fire shooting [18]. - South Africa is considering imposing a maximum 50% tariff on vehicle imports from China and India to protect its auto industry. In 2024, Chinese vehicles accounted for 53% of South Africa's total vehicle imports, and Indian vehicles accounted for 22% [18]. - Trump said Putin agreed to suspend air strikes on Ukraine for a week, plans to announce the next Fed chair nominee next week, and the US plans to reopen Venezuelan airspace for US oil companies to conduct surveys [18]. - The US Senate failed to advance a government funding bill, and the US federal government may face a partial shutdown as funds for several federal departments will run out on January 30th [18].