《黑色》日报-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry shows low and stable production, declining apparent demand, seasonal inventory accumulation with a lower - than - year - on - year rate. Rebar continues to accumulate inventory while hot - rolled coils maintain de - stocking. Steel prices fluctuate with market sentiment, staying in a range. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar widens, and the basis of rebar weakens while that of hot - rolled coils strengthens. In February, due to the Spring Festival off - season, supply and demand are weak. Steel prices are expected to continue seasonal inventory accumulation, with de - stocking pressure after the festival. The price is constrained by weak domestic demand on the upside and supported by macro sentiment and supply - side policies on the downside. Rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3050 - 3250 yuan, and hot - rolled coils between 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. With high inventory, stagnant resumption of iron - making production, and the fulfillment of steel mills' restocking, iron ore prices are under pressure. Supply shows a marginal decrease in the shipping center but is still at a relatively high level compared to historical periods. Demand sees a slight decline in iron - making production and a drop in steel mills' profitability. Terminal demand for steel exports weakens, and the manufacturing industry faces an off - season. Before the Spring Festival, it is difficult to resume iron - making production, and negative feedback is also hard to observe. Port inventory continues to accumulate, and steel mills' inventory increases significantly. Before the Spring Festival, the price is expected to be under pressure, and one can try short - selling around 800 yuan, but beware of macro and market sentiment disturbances [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling in January. The fourth - round price cut of coke was implemented on January 1st, followed by price increases from major coke producers. The first - round price increase was officially accepted by steel mills on January 28th and executed on the 30th. The supply side has lagging price adjustments of coke compared to coking coal, resulting in pressure on coking profits and a slight decline in production. The demand side has a slight resumption of production by steel mills after New Year's Day, with low - level iron - making production and a rebound in steel prices. In terms of inventory, coke - making plants and steel mills accumulate inventory, while ports reduce inventory. The overall inventory is slightly increased at a medium level, and the supply - demand situation of coke improves. Before the Spring Festival, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly strong, with a reference range of 1650 - 1850 yuan. - Coking coal futures also showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Spot prices in Shanxi showed signs of decline, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuated with futures. The supply side has an increase in daily coal output from mines and faster de - stocking. Imported coal has a high - level inventory at ports, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has rebounded rapidly after New Year's Day. The demand side has limited growth in demand for downstream restocking before the Spring Festival due to low - level iron - making production, declining coking profits, and reduced production. In terms of inventory, coke - making plants, steel mills, and ports accumulate inventory, while mines, coal - washing plants, and ports reduce inventory. The overall inventory is slightly increased at a medium level. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly strong before the Spring Festival, with a reference range of 1050 - 1250 yuan. An arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke is recommended, but beware of the supply - demand situation turning loose after the festival [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, supply shows a slight decline, with stable production recently and an increase in the operating rate of manufacturers. The absolute weekly production is at a historically low level. Inner Mongolia's production rises steadily, Ningxia's production is stable, and southern regions may see a contraction in production due to potential electricity price hikes. Steel - making demand is expected to have stable iron - making production before the Spring Festival. The contradiction in the finished - product market is relatively limited, and the resumption of iron - making production can suppress inventory contradictions. However, the resumption space is limited by off - season demand, and negative feedback is hard to observe. The inventory in factories is still high, mainly concentrated in Ningxia, but the warehouse - receipt level is relatively low. The cost of alloy manufacturers' coal - mine replenishment is rising. The overall non - steel demand is marginally weakening. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is limited, and the fundamentals are relatively healthy. The cost side also provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment fluctuations [6]. - For ferromanganese, supply has a slight increase in production, basically remaining stable from the previous period. Most production areas' output is flat compared to last week, with a slight increase in Ningxia's output. Inner Mongolia's settlement electricity price in January is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to the change in settlement electricity prices in other production areas. Before the Spring Festival, the production of ferromanganese is expected to be stable. Steel - making demand is expected to have stable iron - making production before the Spring Festival. The contradiction in the finished - product market is relatively limited, and the resumption of iron - making production can suppress inventory contradictions. However, the resumption space is limited by off - season demand, and negative feedback is hard to observe. Hebei Iron and Steel Group's next - month procurement volume is reduced compared to last month, and attention should be paid to the pricing. The non - steel demand is weakening, and the price is falling. The cost of manganese ore is expected to rise, but the increase is limited. In the short term, the high inventory still suppresses the price, and the fundamentals lack impetus. The price of ferromanganese is expected to fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 5600 - 6000 yuan, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3250 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, and 3290 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3128 yuan/ton, 3177 yuan/ton, and 3211 yuan/ton respectively. - Hot - rolled coils: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3270 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, and 3290 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3288 yuan/ton, 3311 yuan/ton, and 3336 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price is 2940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. Plate - billet price is 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar cost is 3239 yuan/ton, unchanged, and converter rebar cost is 3168 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. - East China hot - rolled coil profit is 16 yuan/ton, North China hot - rolled coil profit is - 94 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, and South China hot - rolled coil profit is 16 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. East China rebar profit is - 14 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan, North China rebar profit is - 104 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, and South China rebar profit is 146 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [1]. Production - Daily average iron - making production is 228.00 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons. - Total production of five major steel products is 823.20 thousand tons, up 3.6 thousand tons. Rebar production is 199.80 thousand tons, up 0.3 thousand tons, including 32.20 thousand tons of electric - furnace products, down 1.1 thousand tons, and 167.60 thousand tons of converter products, up 1.4 thousand tons. Hot - rolled coil production is 309.20 thousand tons, up 3.8 thousand tons [1]. Inventory - Total inventory of five major steel products is 1278.50 thousand tons, up 21.4 thousand tons. Rebar inventory is 475.50 thousand tons, up 23.4 thousand tons. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 355.60 thousand tons, down 2.2 thousand tons [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials transaction volume is 5600 tons, down 1700 tons. Apparent consumption of five major steel products is 801.70 thousand tons, down 7.8 thousand tons. Apparent consumption of rebar is 176.40 thousand tons, down 9.1 thousand tons. Apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils is 311.40 thousand tons, up 1.5 thousand tons [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - Warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders show different changes. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder is 845.7 yuan/ton, down 9.9 yuan. The 05 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also changes, and the 5 - 9 spread is 19.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread is - 31.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port decline. For example, the price of PB powder is 790.0 yuan/ton, down 9.0 yuan. The price of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap is 105.6 dollars/ton, down 0.1 dollars [3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports is 25.30 million tons, down 1.297 million tons. The global weekly shipping volume is 29.783 million tons, up 0.484 million tons. The national monthly import volume is 119.647 million tons, up 9.107 million tons [3]. Demand - The weekly average daily iron - making production of 247 steel mills is 228.00 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons. The weekly average daily port - clearance volume at 45 ports is 332.30 thousand tons, up 21.6 thousand tons. The national monthly pig - iron output is 60.722 million tons, down 1.621 million tons, and the national monthly crude - steel output is 68.177 million tons, down 1.694 million tons [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory is 170.2226 million tons, up 2.557 million tons. The imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 99.686 million tons, up 5.798 million tons. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills is 27 days, up 4 days [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal prices in Shanxi and Mongolia remain stable. The 05 - and 09 - contract prices of coking coal decline, and the basis and spreads show corresponding changes [5]. Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke prices in Shanxi and Rizhao Port change. The 05 - and 09 - contract prices of coke decline, and the basis and spreads change accordingly [5]. Supply - The weekly coke output of all - sample coking plants is 62800 tons, down 500 tons, and the weekly output of 247 steel mills is 47000 tons, up 100 tons. The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines shows a decline [5]. Demand - The weekly iron - making production of 247 steel mills is 228.00 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons. The weekly coke output of all - sample coking plants is 62800 tons, down 500 tons [5]. Inventory Changes - Coke inventory increases. The inventory of all - sample coking plants is 84400 tons, up 2900 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills is 678200 tons, up 16600 tons. The port inventory is 198100 tons, up 2000 tons. Coking coal inventory also changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese spot prices in different regions show different changes. The main - contract closing prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decline [6]. Cost and Profit - The production costs and profits of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions change. For example, the production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is 5866.2 yuan/ton, up slightly [6]. Supply - The weekly output of ferrosilicon is 98000 tons, up slightly, and the operating rate is 29.1%. The weekly output of ferromanganese is 192000 tons, down slightly, and the operating rate is 36.2% [6]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese calculated by Steel Union shows little change. The weekly average daily iron - making production of 247 steel mills is 228.00 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons [6]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of 60 - sample ferrosilicon enterprises is 37300 tons, up slightly, and the average available days for downstream ferrosilicon use increase. The inventory of ferromanganese and its average available days also change [6].