甲醇聚烯烃早报-20260202

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For methanol, with the continued fermentation of the Iran conflict, MTO shows resistance, some plants like Xingxing and Shenghong have parking plans. Currently, methanol has limited upward and downward space, and it is more appropriate to be bearish or sell call options [1] - For PE, the spot price is stable, the basis is weak, oil - and coal - based profits turn worse, upstream inventories are decreasing while social inventories are increasing. The supply of standard products is growing, and the supply - demand balance of LL in the 05 contract is under pressure [4] - For PP, the market is stable, the basis is weak, import and export profits are negative, and the export volume is slightly decreasing. Supply is flat in January, downstream demand shows some improvement, and overall inventory is neutral. The balance sheet for the 05 contract and later is expected to be slightly under pressure [10] - For PVC, the basis is improving, the market transaction is average, the comprehensive profit is low, the short - term seasonal start - up is recovering, and the overall inventory is high. The long - term demand from the real estate industry is weak, and the medium - and long - term outlook is poor [12] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price data includes various regional prices such as Hebei, Northwest, CFR Southeast, etc. The price fluctuations are shown, and the MTO profit situation restricts the upward space of methanol prices [1] - Graphs show the trends of MA spot price, basis, regional price differences, production profits, MTO profits, international price ratios, etc. [1] PE - Price and inventory data: On January 2, 2026, there are prices for Northeast Asia ethylene, various PE products in different regions, and related inventory and basis data. The daily changes show price and basis fluctuations [4] - Market conditions: The market is volatile, with stable spot prices, weak basis, and changes in production profits and inventory levels. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the supply - demand balance of LL is under pressure [4] PP - Price and inventory data: There are prices for Northeast Asia propylene, various PP products in different regions, import and export profits, and basis data on January 26 - 30, 2026, along with daily changes [10] - Market conditions: The market is stable, the basis is weak, import and export profits are negative, and the export volume is slightly decreasing. Supply is flat in January, downstream demand shows some improvement, and overall inventory is neutral [10] PVC - Price and profit data: From January 26 - 30, 2026, there are prices for Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, and different production methods of PVC in different regions, as well as profit and basis data [11][12] - Market conditions: The basis is improving, the market transaction is average, the comprehensive profit is low, the short - term seasonal start - up is recovering, and the overall inventory is high. The long - term demand from the real estate industry is weak [12]