永安期货有色早报-20260202

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The copper price fluctuated significantly this week, with the US's ability to siphon inventory waning, but global copper consumption remains strong, and the copper fundamentals are still supply - constrained and demand - driven. The copper price is expected to rise in the medium - term, and the stabilization time depends on the precious metals' stabilization [1]. - The aluminum price fluctuated sharply this week due to multiple factors. If there is a price correction, consider going long, and a deterioration in the Iran situation may push the price up [1]. - The zinc supply side has issues like declining TC and marginal tightening of domestic ore, while the demand side is seasonally weak. The market is optimistic about zinc's long - term allocation, and attention should be paid to reverse - arbitrage opportunities [2]. - The nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak, with a slight decline in production and weak demand. The Indonesian nickel ore quota reduction is a short - term sentiment factor [3]. - The lead's supply and demand contradiction is easing, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices in the short term, focusing on the downstream's Spring Festival stocking enthusiasm after the regeneration maintenance [7]. - The tin price fluctuated sharply this week. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see due to large macro - sentiment fluctuations. In the long term, the price may decline significantly in the second half of 2026 if the macro situation changes [10]. - The industrial silicon's supply is shrinking, with a de - stocking expectation in February. The price is expected to fluctuate with costs and move in a cycle - bottom range in the long term [11]. - The lithium carbonate's short - term fundamentals are strong with a de - stocking trend. If the intermediate inventory further decreases, there is a large space for positive arbitrage between months [11]. - The stainless steel's fundamentals are weak, with a slight decline in production, entering the demand off - season, and a slight increase in inventory. The Indonesian quota news is a short - term sentiment factor [14]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - The copper price showed two - way large - amplitude fluctuations this week, and the overall consumption is good. The copper price is expected to rise in the medium - term, and the short - term stabilization depends on precious metals [1]. Aluminum - The aluminum price fluctuated sharply due to seasonal factors, external disturbances, and supply increments. Consider going long on price corrections, and the Iran situation may impact the price [1]. Zinc - The zinc supply side has problems like declining TC and marginal tightening of domestic ore. The demand side is seasonally weak, and there are opportunities for reverse - arbitrage [2]. Nickel - The nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak, with a slight decline in production, weak demand, and the Indonesian quota reduction as a sentiment factor [3]. Lead - The lead's supply and demand contradiction is easing, and it is recommended to short - sell at high prices in the short term, focusing on downstream stocking after regeneration maintenance [7]. Tin - The tin price fluctuated sharply. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the long term, it may decline significantly in the second half of 2026 if the macro situation changes [10]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon's supply is shrinking, with a de - stocking expectation in February. The price is expected to fluctuate with costs and move in a cycle - bottom range in the long term [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate's short - term fundamentals are strong with a de - stocking trend. There is a large space for positive arbitrage between months if intermediate inventory decreases [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel's fundamentals are weak, with a slight decline in production, entering the demand off - season, and a slight increase in inventory. The Indonesian quota news is a short - term sentiment factor [14].