《农产品》日报-20260202

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - The prices of domestic vegetable oils followed the trend of stagnation and correction due to the stagnation and correction of US crude oil and US soybean oil, as well as the weakening of macro - sentiment. The main contract of rapeseed oil oscillated and adjusted below 9400 yuan. Short - term attention should be paid to the support at the 4200 - 4250 ringgit range for Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures. [1] Cotton - Cotton prices are supported under inventory pressure, with strong buying power in the market and decent consumption. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, new textile orders decline, and demand is mainly for essential needs. Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the support around 14500 yuan. [2] Sugar - Internationally, Brazil is approaching the end of the crushing season, India's sugar production has increased significantly, and Thailand's sugar production may decline slightly. It is expected that raw sugar will oscillate at a low level of 14 - 15 cents. Domestically, the Spring Festival stocking is nearing the end, prices are weakening, and the support from the spot market is gradually weakening. The price is in the bottom - grinding stage, and the market is expected to follow the overall macro - sentiment, with attention paid to the pressure around the previous high of 5300 yuan. [3] Red Dates - The Spring Festival is the traditional consumption peak season for red dates. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the downstream has sufficient time for stocking. The futures are still in the low - valuation range, and the registration volume of new - season red date futures warehouse receipts is relatively small. Attention should be paid to the spot trading and inventory situation of red dates. [4] Apples - During the Spring Festival stocking peak, the trading activity in major apple - producing areas has increased, and the cold - storage inventory has decreased. However, the transaction of farmer - owned apples is still average, and the arrival volume at the Guangdong wholesale market has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the post - festival inventory reduction rhythm. [7][12] Corn and Corn Starch - Before the festival, the selling window in the grass - roots level has shortened, and the enthusiasm for selling has slightly increased. The price is running weakly, but the price decline is limited due to the low - level inventory of the mid - downstream and the strong price - support sentiment. The demand side shows that the deep - processing inventory has increased but is still at a low level, and feed enterprises mainly purchase on demand. The short - term corn price may decline slightly, and attention should be paid to the selling rhythm and policy release. [14] Meal - The US soybeans have strong support below. Although the short - term impact of Argentina's drought speculation and Brazil's logistics supports the market, the market has declined due to the influence of macro - sentiment. The domestic spot market remains loose, with a high operating rate. The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is still relatively high, and the downstream inventory is sufficient with limited stocking willingness. The arrival rhythm is uncertain, and there is speculation about customs clearance. The downside space for soybean and rapeseed meal is also limited. The market's pre - festival stocking sentiment is expected to gradually weaken, and the market may continue to decline with attention paid to the driving force of macro - sentiment. [18] Pigs - The spot price is oscillating weakly, the supply is increasing, and the secondary fattening inventory is rapidly declining. The large - sized pigs that were previously reluctant to sell are now accelerating their sales. The supply pressure is increasing, and there is an expectation of early sales in February. The current futures and spot prices are both weakening, with limited fundamental positives. The market is mainly trading the off - season demand after the Spring Festival, and it is expected that the market will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. [20] Eggs - Egg - raising enterprises are actively selling, and the inventory is normal. The supply of large - sized eggs is sufficient, while that of small - sized eggs is tight. The egg price has reached a phased high, and the downstream demand is not keeping up. As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg sales shift from external to internal. It is expected that the egg price will maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the short term. [24] Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - Price Changes: On January 30, compared with January 29, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased to varying degrees. For example, the Jiangsu average price of soybean oil decreased by 120 yuan to 8670 yuan, a decrease of 1.37%. [1] - Basis Changes: The basis of various oils also changed. For example, the basis of soybean oil Y2605 decreased by 20 yuan to 388 yuan, a decrease of 4.90%. [1] - Inventory and Other Information: The inventory of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in coastal areas is provided, and the impact of factors such as rainfall in Argentina on CBOT soybeans and the impact of Trump's speech on US soybean oil are also analyzed. [1] Cotton - Futures Market: The prices of cotton 2605 and 2609 decreased, with the cotton 2605 price dropping by 240 yuan to 14670 yuan, a decrease of 1.61%. The ICE US cotton main contract also decreased slightly. [2] - Spot Market: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of 3128B increased, while the FC Index:M: 1% decreased. The basis between 3128B and the 05 and 09 contracts increased significantly. [2] - Industry Situation: The inventory of some regions decreased, the industrial inventory increased, the import volume increased significantly, and the inventory in the bonded area also increased. The inventory days of yarn and grey cloth, as well as the processing profit of spinning enterprises, showed different changes. The retail sales of clothing and textile products and the export volume of related products also had corresponding changes. [2] Sugar - Futures Market: The prices of sugar 2605 and 2609 decreased slightly, and the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.45 cents to 14.26 cents, a decrease of 3.06%. [3] - Spot Market: The Nanning spot price increased slightly, and the basis also changed. The import prices of Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) decreased. [3] - Industry Situation: The cumulative sugar production and sales in the country and Guangxi decreased year - on - year, the sales rate decreased, the industrial inventory in the country increased, and the sugar import volume increased. [3] Red Dates - Futures Market: The prices of red date 2605, 2607, and 2609 all increased slightly. The basis and spreads between different contracts also changed. [4] - Spot Market: The Cangzhou spot prices of different grades of red dates changed slightly. [4] - Inventory and Other Information: The inventory of 36 sample points decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year. The arrival volume at the Guangdong Ruyifang market increased. [4] Apples - Futures Market: The prices of apple 2605 and 2610 decreased, with the apple 2605 price dropping by 124 yuan to 9518 yuan, a decrease of 1.29%. [7] - Spot Market: The arrival volume at major fruit wholesale markets decreased slightly. [7] - Inventory and Other Information: The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 28.73 tons to 654.05 tons, a decrease of 4.21%. [7][12] Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: The price of corn 2603 decreased slightly, the basis increased, the 3 - 7 spread decreased, the north - south trade profit increased, the Brazilian arrival duty - paid price increased slightly, and the import profit decreased. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased, the trading volume decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased. [14] - Corn Starch: The price of corn starch 2603 decreased, the basis increased, the 3 - 7 spread increased slightly, the starch - corn 03 spread decreased, the Shandong starch profit decreased, the trading volume decreased, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged. [14] Meal - Soybean Meal: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal increased slightly, the futures price of M2605 decreased, the basis increased, the spot basis quote increased, the Brazilian 3 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit increased, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged. [18] - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal decreased, the futures price of RM2605 decreased, the basis increased, the Canadian 3 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit decreased, and the warehouse receipts were zero. [18] - Soybeans: The spot prices of Harbin soybeans and Jiangsu imported soybeans remained unchanged, the futures prices of soybean one and soybean two main contracts decreased, the basis increased, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged. [18] - Spreads: The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the oil - meal ratio and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread, all changed. [18] Pigs - Futures Market: The price of the main contract decreased, the price of pig 2605 increased slightly, the price of pig 2603 increased slightly, the 3 - 5 spread increased, the main contract's trading volume decreased, and the warehouse receipts decreased to zero. [20] - Spot Market: The spot prices in various regions decreased to varying degrees, and the local premiums and discounts are provided. [20] - Spot Indicators: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses decreased slightly, the weekly white - strip price remained unchanged, the weekly prices of piglets and sows remained unchanged, the weekly slaughter weight decreased, the weekly self - breeding profit decreased, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit increased, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased. [20] Eggs - Futures Market: The prices of egg 03 and 04 contracts decreased, the basis increased, and the 3 - 4 spread increased. [24] - Spot Market: The egg - producing area price increased, the egg - chick price increased, the culled - hen price increased, the egg - feed ratio increased, and the breeding profit increased significantly. [24]