《有色》日报-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: High nickel prices stimulate production, but demand is weak. The price is expected to fall and then fluctuate widely, with the main reference range of 135,000 - 150,000 yuan [2]. - Stainless steel: Cost support is strengthened, but demand and inventory digestion are insufficient. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, with the main reference range of 13,500 - 14,800 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The regulatory environment is strengthened, and the price is supported. It may fall in the short - term, with the main reference range of 140,000 - 160,000 yuan [8]. - Copper: In the long - term, the copper price bottom is expected to rise. In the short - term, it may return to fundamental pricing, and attention should be paid to CL premium changes, with the main support range of 101,500 - 103,000 yuan [9]. - Zinc: The zinc price is supported by tight mines. Although there is negative feedback on the demand side, the fundamentals are good, and attention should be paid to zinc mine TC and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main support range of 25,000 - 25,500 yuan [13]. - Tin: Short - term prices fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to be cautious. In the medium - to - long - term, a low - buying strategy can be adopted [14]. - Aluminum alloy: It is expected to maintain a high - level range oscillation, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 24,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to waste aluminum circulation, import window changes, and pre - holiday downstream inventory [15]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price is affected by macro and geopolitical factors. It is recommended to wait for price stability and volatility decline to go long, and pay attention to the support at 23,000 - 23,500 yuan [16]. - Industrial silicon: It is expected to oscillate, with the main price range of 8,200 - 9,200 yuan. Attention should be paid to production reduction and demand changes [17]. - Polysilicon: In February, supply and demand are weak. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to order recovery and capacity regulation. The price may be supported at 45,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Nickel: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 146,150 yuan/ton, down 1.25% [2]. - Stainless steel: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 14,400 yuan/ton, down 0.69% [5]. - Lithium carbonate: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 160,500 yuan/ton, down 4.46% [8]. - Copper: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 104,410 yuan/ton, up 0.22% [9]. - Zinc: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 25,790 yuan/ton, up 1.98% [13]. - Tin: SMM 1 tin price is 428,650 yuan/ton, down 2.27% [14]. - Aluminum alloy: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 24,350 yuan/ton, down 0.81% [15]. - Aluminum: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24,660 yuan/ton, down 0.80% [16]. - Industrial silicon: East China SI4210 industrial silicon price is 8,650 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. - Polysilicon: N - type re - feedstock average price is 51,300 yuan/kg, down 2.29% [18]. Monthly Spread - Nickel: 2602 - 2603 is - 90 yuan/ton [2]. - Stainless steel: 2602 - 2603 is - 275 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium carbonate: 2602 - 2603 is - 780 yuan/ton [8]. - Copper: 2602 - 2603 is - 270 yuan/ton [9]. - Zinc: 2602 - 2603 is - 50 yuan/ton [13]. - Tin: 2602 - 2603 is - 1000 yuan/ton [14]. - Aluminum alloy: 2602 - 2603 is - 80 yuan/ton [15]. - Aluminum: AL 2602 - 2603 is 110 yuan/ton [16]. - Industrial silicon: The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract is - 45 yuan/ton [17]. - Polysilicon: The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract is - 1230 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - Nickel: China's refined nickel production in January is 31,400 tons, up 26.10% month - on - month [2]. - Stainless steel: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) in January is 176.32 million tons, up 0.92% month - on - month [5]. - Lithium carbonate: Lithium carbonate production in December is 99,200 tons, down 1.31% month - on - month [8]. - Copper: Electrolytic copper production in January is 117.93 million tons, up 0.10% month - on - month [9]. - Zinc: Refined zinc production in January is 56.06 million tons, up 1.54% month - on - month [13]. - Tin: SMM refined tin production in December is 15,950 tons, down 0.06% [14]. - Aluminum alloy: Recycled aluminum alloy ingot production in December is 64.00 million tons, down 6.16% month - on - month [15]. - Aluminum: Alumina production in January is 738.56 million tons, down 1.78% month - on - month [16]. - Industrial silicon: National industrial silicon production in January is 39.71 million tons, down 1.15% [17]. - Polysilicon: Polysilicon production in January is 10.08 million tons, down 12.73% [18].