大越期货油脂早报-20260202

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are oscillating and consolidating, with a relatively neutral domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic oil and fat supply. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans for export. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global oil and fat fundamentals. The main risk is the El Niño weather [5] Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the month - end inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. The situation is neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,640, with a basis of 358, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - Main positions: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract increased. It is bullish [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will oscillate in the range of 8,100 - 8,500 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report situation is the same, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. The situation is neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,196, with a basis of - 44, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is bearish [3] - Inventory: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - Main positions: The short positions of the main palm oil contract decreased. It is bearish [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will oscillate in the range of 9,100 - 9,500 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report situation is the same, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. The situation is neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,298, with a basis of 918, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish [4] - Main positions: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. It is bearish [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will oscillate in the range of 9,200 - 9,600 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - Bearish factors: The oil and fat prices are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil and fat inventory has been continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]