大越期货纯碱早报-20260202

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high production, declining downstream demand, and high inventory levels. It's expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] - The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a historical high, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved. The risk lies in the lower - than - expected cold repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass and better - than - expected macro - level positive factors [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1,224 yuan/ton to 1,204 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.63%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped from 1,180 yuan/ton to 1,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.69%. The main basis remained unchanged at - 44 yuan/ton [6] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [12] Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - alkali method was - 168.35 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production method was - 94.50 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15] Soda Ash Operating Rate, Production Capacity and Output - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 84.19% [18] - The weekly output of soda ash was 78.13 tons, including 42.11 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [21] Soda Ash Industry Production Capacity Changes - In 2023, the total new production capacity of soda ash was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity was 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [22] Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash was 97.06% [25] - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.10 tons, with an operating rate of 71.86% [28] Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory at factories was 154.42 tons, a 1.51% increase from the previous week, running above the five - year average [34] Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheets of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E showed changes in effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]