大越期货白糖早报-20260202

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Green Pool expects a global sugar supply surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 season, lower than 2.74 million tons in the 25/26 season [4][8] - As of the end of December 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 4.7018 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 1.57 million tons, and the sales rate was 33.39%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 190,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 69,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 120,800 tons [4] - The main position is bearish, with a net increase in short positions, and the main trend is unclear [4] - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 05 faces significant pressure from the 60-day moving average above, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate around 5,200 [4][8] - Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the US cola changing its formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include an increase in global sugar production, a global supply surplus in the new season, a drop in international sugar prices to around 14.5 cents per pound, opening the import profit window, and increasing import impact [6] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - No relevant information provided 2. Daily Tips - The basis of Liuzhou spot sugar is 122 (for contract 05), with a premium over the futures, which is neutral [5] - As of the end of October in the 25/26 sugar season, the industrial inventory was 791,400 tons, which is bearish [5] - The 20-day moving average is flat, and the K-line is near the 20-day moving average, which is neutral [5] 3. Today's Focus - No relevant information provided 4. Fundamental Data - Multiple institutions predict a global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season, with StoneX forecasting 3.7 million tons, ISO 1.63 million tons, and Datagro 1.53 million tons [31] - In the 2025/26 season, the sugarcane and beet planting and harvesting areas in China are expected to remain stable, with a slight decrease in sugar yield per unit area. The estimated sugar production is 11.7 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, and consumption is 15.7 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to range from 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to range from 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [32] - The cost of processed and taxed imported raw sugar (50% tariff) and corresponding profits from December 2025 to January 2026 are provided [36] 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, with a net increase in short positions, and the main trend is unclear [4]