大越期货尿素早报-20260202

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are at a high level compared to the same period last year. With the return of maintenance, the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The comprehensive inventory has declined, showing an obvious de - stocking pattern. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the order demand is still acceptable. Both agricultural reserve demand and trade demand are good, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand have rebounded significantly. There is a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports. However, the domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1770 (unchanged). The overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2605 contract basis is - 20, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.1%, which is bearish. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.089 million tons (+ 0.009 million tons), which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish. The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bearish. The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate, with the operating rate continuing to rise, downstream orders being acceptable, reserve demand increasing, and inventory being depleted. It is predicted that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. - The factors that are favorable for urea are inventory de - stocking and improved orders, while the unfavorable factor is domestic oversupply. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year - on - year. After maintenance, the operating rate is expected to rise. Comprehensive inventory has declined, and de - stocking is obvious. Near the Spring Festival, order demand is acceptable, with good agricultural reserve and trade demands. Industrial demand for compound fertilizers and melamine has increased significantly. There is a large export price difference, but the domestic market is oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1770 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The UR2605 contract basis is - 20, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.1%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.089 million tons (+ 0.009 million tons), which is neutral [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate, with the operating rate continuing to rise, downstream orders being acceptable, reserve demand increasing, and inventory being depleted. It is predicted that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]