大越期货玻璃早报-20260202

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term. The production profit of glass has been slightly repaired, cold repair is less than expected, supply is at a low level, downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real estate drag, and inventory is at a historically high level in the same period. The basis shows that the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, the inventory is above the 5 - year average, the price is below the 20 - day line, the main position is net short and the short position is increasing [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1087 yuan/ton to 1056 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.85%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board remained unchanged at 940 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from - 147 yuan/ton to - 116 yuan/ton, an increase of - 21.09% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 940 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - The production profit of glass has been slightly repaired, and there is an expectation of further cold repair in the industry due to low production profit [2][4]. Fundamentals - Supply Side - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 213, with an operating rate of 71.86%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historically low level in the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 151,000 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level in the same period [19][21]. Fundamentals - Demand Side - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level in the same period, and the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic [25][4]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 52.564 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.23% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [40]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, consumption, and other data of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption is expected to be 53.1 million tons, with a growth rate of - 1.15% [41].