大越期货棉花早报-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is influenced by multiple factors, with a neutral overall outlook. The main contract 05 of cotton faces significant pressure at the 15,000 mark, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,500 - 15,000 in the short - term, suggesting a trading strategy of range - bound operation [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the expected reduction of over 10% in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, pre - holiday downstream restocking, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US compared to the previous period. Negative factors include a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, a large amount of new cotton on the market, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No information provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to be regulated, with a possible reduction of over 10%. According to the USDA December report, the production in the 2025/2026 season is 26.081 million tons, consumption is 25.823 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons. In November, textile and clothing exports were $23.869 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12%. In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 31%, and 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's December 2025/2026 forecast, production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 16,183 yuan, with a basis of 1,513 yuan (for the 05 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is a positive factor [4]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture of China estimates the ending inventory in December 2025/2026 to be 8.35 million tons, which is a negative factor [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, presenting a neutral situation [4]. - Main Position: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the trend of the main force is unclear, which is a positive factor [4]. - Expectation: The main contract 05 of cotton faces significant pressure at the 15,000 mark, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,500 - 15,000 in the short - term, suggesting a trading strategy of range - bound operation [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast: In the 2025/2026 season, global cotton production is 26.004 million tons, consumption is 25.891 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.217 million tons. There are differences in production, consumption, and inventory among different countries [9][10]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast: In the 2025/2026 season, the area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, the production is 25.39956 million tons, the beginning inventory is 15.83577 million tons, the import volume is 9.71442 million tons, the consumption is 25.00778 million tons, the export volume is 9.71412 million tons, the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 5.65 [12]. - Ministry of Agriculture Data: In the 2025/2026 season, the beginning inventory is 9.853 million tons, the production is 7.278 million tons, the import is 1.1 million tons, the consumption is 8.1 million tons, and the ending inventory is 10.116 million tons [14]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.