原油成品油早报-20260202

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil prices rebounded due to escalating geopolitical risks. The unstable situation in Iran persisted over the weekend. Although Trump received a briefing on the military strike plan against Iran, no final decision has been made. Israel is on high alert for the possible US intervention in Iran. Iran has warned that if attacked, it will strike back at Israel and the US. The Iranian president showed a willingness to reconcile by meeting with the protest groups. If the US launches a military strike against Iran, oil prices may surge due to geopolitical risks. From a fundamental perspective, oil inventories increased this week. The Dubai month spread strengthened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking margins strengthened while diesel cracking margins fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price center in Q1 is expected to be high and volatile. [6] 3. Summary of Relevant Sections Daily News - Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, stated that if the US initiates a war, it will be a regional conflict, not limited to one area. [3] - There was an explosion at Iran's southern Abbas Port, and Iranian media denied reports that a Revolutionary Guard commander was the target. [3] - US President Trump expressed hope that Iran would negotiate an acceptable agreement and said that Iran is having "serious" talks with the US. [4] - The US and Iran have signaled their willingness to negotiate, but experts believe there are significant differences on key issues, making the negotiation prospects difficult. The current tense situation may continue for some time. [4] - OPEC+ confirmed a production increase suspension in March and will hold the next meeting on March 1st. The previous daily production cut of 1.65 million barrels may be partially or fully restored based on market conditions. [4] Inventory - In the week of January 23rd, US crude oil exports increased by 901,000 barrels per day to 4.589 million barrels per day. [5] - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 36,000 barrels to 13.696 million barrels per day. [17] - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 2.295 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.54%. [17] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.271 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.08% compared to the same period last year. [17] - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 515,000 barrels to 415 million barrels, an increase of 0.12%. [17] - US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.642 million barrels per day, a decrease of 805,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. [17] Weekly View - Crude oil prices rebounded this week due to geopolitical risks. If the US attacks Iran, oil prices may rise. Fundamentally, inventories increased, Dubai month spreads strengthened slightly after a low opening, gasoline cracking margins strengthened while diesel cracking margins fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. The price center in Q1 is expected to be high and volatile. [6]