焦煤焦炭早报（2026-2-2）-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Coking Coal: The current production of coking enterprises is still below expectations, and the actual demand for raw coal has not significantly improved. With the decline in hot metal production this week and weak rigid demand, the downstream market mainly replenishes inventory as needed. Considering the general demand for downstream finished products and the decline in steel mill profits, the downstream market has insufficient support for coking coal prices. It is expected that coking coal prices may remain stable in the short term [2]. - Coke: After the first round of coke price increase was finally implemented after a long - term game, the profit per ton of coke in coking plants has slightly increased. Most coking enterprises have maintained their previous operating rates, and coke supply is relatively stable. Under the background of weak demand, traders and steel mills are relatively cautious in purchasing, but the current transportation and shipment are smooth, and there is no obvious inventory pressure in the plants. It is expected that coke prices may remain stable and slightly strengthen in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Domestic coal mines maintain a stable production rhythm before the Spring Festival. Downstream winter storage and inventory replenishment are nearing completion, the purchase volume of coking coal is gradually decreasing, and the willingness of intermediate links to sell has increased. The market sentiment has slightly weakened. Recently, the online auction transactions have been average, with more price drops than increases. Coal mines with high prices have difficulty in selling, and some coal mines with slow price cuts still have price - make - up drops. However, since most coal mines have pre - sold orders and no inventory pressure, they have a strong willingness to hold prices. The evaluation is neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1180, and the basis is 24.5. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The evaluation is bullish [2]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 801000 tons, port inventory is 295000 tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 861000 tons, and the total sample inventory is 1957000 tons, a decrease of 21000 tons from last week. The evaluation is bullish [2]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average. The evaluation is neutral [3]. - Main Position: The main position of coking coal is net short, and the short position is decreasing. The evaluation is bearish [3]. Coke - Fundamentals: After the first round of coke price increase was implemented, the profit per ton of coke in coking plants has slightly increased. Most coking enterprises have maintained their previous operating rates, and coke supply is relatively stable. Under the background of weak demand, traders and steel mills are relatively cautious in purchasing, but the current transportation and shipment are smooth, and there is no obvious inventory pressure in the plants. The evaluation is bullish [7]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1620, and the basis is - 101.5. The spot price is at a discount to the futures price. The evaluation is bearish [7]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 626000 tons, port inventory is 187000 tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 45000 tons, and the total sample inventory is 858000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons from last week. The evaluation is bullish [7]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average. The evaluation is bullish [7]. - Main Position: The main position of coke is net long, and the long position is increasing. The evaluation is bullish [7]. 3.2 Price Coking Coal - On January 30 (17:30), the price of imported Russian coking coal at various ports is provided, such as the price of K4 main coking coal at Caofeidian Port, Jingtang Port, and Rizhao Port is 1300. The price of imported Australian coking coal at various ports is also provided, like the price of Heishui 1/3 coking coal at Caofeidian Port and Rizhao Port is 1230 [10]. Coke - On January 30 (17:30), the port metallurgical coke price index shows that the prices of various grades of metallurgical coke at different ports have different changes, such as the price of secondary metallurgical coke from Inner Mongolia at a certain port increased by 50 [11]. 3.3 Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 295000 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1000 tons from last week [19]. - Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 819300 tons, a decrease of 69200 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [23]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803800 tons, an increase of 4300 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626700 tons, a decrease of 13300 tons from last week [28]. 3.4 Other Indicators - Coking Plant Capacity Utilization Rate: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprise samples nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].