集运早报-20260202

Group 1: Contract Information - EC2602 had a closing price of 1716.7, a decline of -0.05%, a basis of 142.6, a trading volume of 453, an open interest of 2551, and an open interest change of -261 [2][28] - EC2604 had a closing price of 1227.0, a decline of -1.82%, a basis of 632.3, a trading volume of 25237, an open interest of 35881, and an open interest change of -3788 [2][28] - EC2606 had a closing price of 1542.8, a decline of -2.11%, a basis of 316.5, a trading volume of 5606, an open interest of 12303, and an open interest change of 997 [2][28] - EC2608 had a closing price of 1607.0, a decline of -2.33%, a basis of 252.3, a trading volume of 694, an open interest of 1594, and an open interest change of -72 [2][28] - EC2610 had a closing price of 1122.5, a decline of -2.49%, a basis of 736.8, a trading volume of 2674, an open interest of 8134, and an open interest change of -799 [2][28] Group 2: Month - Spread Information - The month - spread of EC2502 - 2604 was 489.7 the previous day, with a daily increase of 21.9 and a weekly decrease of -36.8 [2][28] - The month - spread of EC2504 - 2606 was -315.8 the previous day, with a daily increase of 10.5 and a weekly decrease of -68.4 [2][28] Group 3: Index Information - The spot price of the European line was 1859.31 points on January 26, 2026, a decline of -4.86% from the previous period [2][28] - The SCFI of the European line was 1418 dollars/TEU on January 30, 2026, a decline of -11.10% from the previous period [2][28] Group 4: Market Analysis and Recommendations - Geopolitical tensions, stable Maersk quotes in February, and the expectation of rush shipments in March may prevent the short - term market from falling [3][29] - For the near - term contracts, it is recommended to be cautious when short - selling the 04 contract, and pay attention to whether there is a significant premium in the market. In the future, focus on the PA alliance's quotes and geopolitical situations [3][29] - For the far - term contracts, it is recommended to short the 10 contract on rallies, mainly based on the logic of off - season and tax - refund negatives. The valuations of 06 and 08 are difficult to determine, and they will fluctuate widely within a reasonable range. It is recommended to operate with caution under geopolitical uncertainties [3][29] Group 5: European Line Spot Situation - This week, downstream customers are booking shipping space for early February (week 6 - 7). Currently, the overall cargo - receiving situation of ships is good, but the pressure to attract cargo has increased, and shipping companies need to attract cargo for ships departing during the Spring Festival holiday [4][30] - The price center in week 7 is 2140 US dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the futures market. MSK's price for week 8 - 9 is 1950 US dollars (unchanged from the previous period), and other shipping companies' quotes are also mainly unchanged [4][30] Group 6: News - On February 1, Iranian officials said that media reports about the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's plan to hold a military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz were false, and the Revolutionary Guard had not issued an official statement on the matter [5][31] - On February 2, the US released a signal to negotiate with Iran, and the two sides may hold talks in Turkey. However, experts believe that although both sides have the intention to negotiate, there are still serious differences on many key issues, and the negotiation prospects are difficult [6][32]