原木期货日报-20260202

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Log Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: February 2, 2026 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The spot market is currently firm, with some specifications in short supply and rising prices in Jiangsu due to low inventory. Trading activity in the spot market is expected to decline gradually as the Spring Festival approaches. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected reduced shipping volume in the future. However, demand remains weak, limiting the upside potential. The current valuation of log futures has been slightly repaired, and it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach at the current price [4] Group 4: Futures and Spot Prices - On January 30, the prices of log futures contracts 2601, 2603, 2605, and 2607 all increased compared with January 29, with increases of 1.48%, 1.66%, 0.89%, and 0.50% respectively. The basis of the main contract decreased by 13 [2] - The spot prices of various types of logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on January 30 compared with January 29 [2] - The outer - market quotes for radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged from January 23 to January 30 [2] - On February 2, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased slightly compared with February 1, and the import theoretical cost increased by 1.20 yuan [2] Group 5: Supply - In December 2023, the port shipment volume was 204.0 million cubic meters, a 7.82% increase from November [2] - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports decreased by 1 to 7, a 13% week - on - week decrease, and the total arrival volume decreased by 2.7 million cubic meters to 21.9 million cubic meters, an 11% week - on - week decrease [4] Group 6: Inventory - As of January 23, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 249 million cubic meters, a decrease of 8 million cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong was 188.8 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3.2 million cubic meters, and the inventory in Jiangsu was 41.08 million cubic meters, a decrease of 8.1 million cubic meters [3][4] Group 7: Demand - As of January 23, the daily average log出库量 was 6.18 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.02 million cubic meters from the previous week. The demand in Shandong increased by 11%, while the demand in Jiangsu decreased by 15% [4]