美银：The Flow Show-Debasement is Da Base Case
2026-02-02 02:22

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish sentiment towards gold, oil, and commodities, with gold showing a year-to-date return of 24.2% [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the trend of US dollar debasement as a primary investment theme, suggesting that this will lead to increased liquidity and a focus on assets like gold and commodities [20]. - It highlights the correlation between the US dollar's performance and political factors, particularly the approval ratings of President Trump, which have historically influenced market sentiment [2][22]. - The report notes a significant inflow into gold and materials, indicating a shift in investor preference towards these assets amid economic uncertainty [18][57]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Year-to-date performance shows gold at 24.2%, oil at 13.9%, and commodities at 12.1%, while US stocks lag at 1.8% [1]. - The US dollar has depreciated by 12% since Trump's inauguration, which is seen as beneficial for manufacturing in key swing states [2]. Investment Strategies - The report suggests a "permanent portfolio" strategy with a 10-year return of 8.7%, the best since 1992, indicating a strong performance across diversified asset classes [3][4]. - It recommends long positions in bonds, international equities, and gold as a hedge against US dollar debasement and inflation [19][24]. Asset Flows - Recent flows indicate $10 billion to cash, $17 billion to bonds, and $6.7 billion to gold, while equities saw a $15.4 billion outflow [11][57]. - Notably, there was a record inflow of $11.8 billion into materials, reflecting a growing interest in this sector [18][50]. Economic Context - The report discusses the implications of a potential economic boom leading up to the midterm elections, with a focus on how this could affect asset prices and investor behavior [20]. - It also highlights the historical performance of gold and emerging market stocks during previous US dollar bear markets, suggesting they are likely to outperform again [44].