2026-02-02 02:22Investment Rating - Pop Mart is rated as a Top Buy in China's consumer sector, with a target price of HK$415.00, representing an expected return of 92.0% from the current price of HK$216.20 [8][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Pop Mart's user base is growing globally, with 76% of survey participants making their first purchase within one year, and 45% within three months [2][12]. - A significant 87% of respondents expressed a likelihood to purchase Pop Mart products in the next three months, driven by new product series, limited editions, and seasonal releases [3][30]. - Brand perception is strong, with 54% of respondents very satisfied and 39% somewhat satisfied, indicating a positive emotional connection with the brand [4][46]. Summary by Sections Consumer Behavior - 76% of respondents had their first Pop Mart purchase within one year, with 45% within three months [2][12]. - 34% shop for Pop Mart products every month, and 29% every three months, indicating high purchase frequency [12][14]. - 90% of respondents own at least two Pop Mart items, with the US having the highest per capita ownership [18][25]. Purchase Drivers - 87% of respondents are likely to buy Pop Mart products in the next three months, with new series and limited editions being key drivers [3][30]. - 93% plan to buy Pop Mart products in the future, with 48% maintaining current purchase frequency and 26% planning to buy more often [36][39]. - Wider product range, better quality, and lower prices are cited as factors that could increase purchase frequency [40]. Brand Perception - 54% of respondents are very satisfied with Pop Mart, with the highest satisfaction in the US at 70% [46][48]. - Gift-giving and collection/hobby are the top reasons for purchasing, with emotional satisfaction also playing a significant role [48][50]. - Character design, rarity/exclusivity, and emotional connection are highly valued attributes of Pop Mart products [51]. Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2026 is Rmb 18,357 million, with a diluted EPS of Rmb 13.763, reflecting a growth of 35.5% [7][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong gross margin of around 72% in 2026 [10]. Market Dynamics - The survey indicates that Pop Mart's user base continues to grow despite concerns about secondary market prices, with only 9% of respondents purchasing from secondhand platforms [2][27]. - The brand's strong presence in physical stores, especially in China, contrasts with higher online purchase ratios in the US and UK [27][29].