锂行业_与电动车 储能专家交流-Lithium _Catching up with UBS' EV_BESS experts_ Shaw

Investment Rating - The report indicates a supportive outlook for the lithium up-cycle, with a forecast of approximately 20% year-on-year growth in lithium battery production for 2026, despite current pricing trends being higher than expected [1]. Core Insights - The EV market in China has experienced a decline in sales at the start of 2026, with retail and wholesale sales down by 16% and 23% year-on-year, respectively. However, UBS forecasts an 8% growth in the domestic EV market and a 15% increase in wholesale EV sales volumes driven by exports [2]. - The capacity pricing mechanism is expected to enhance the internal rates of return (IRRs) for Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), potentially increasing IRRs to around 7-8% as opposed to typical hurdle rates of approximately 6% [3]. - The report highlights that higher battery material costs, particularly for lithium, copper, and aluminum, are anticipated to increase the average cost of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) by approximately RMB 4,000 to RMB 7,000 [4]. - Technological advancements in solid-state batteries are being made, with companies like Samsung SDI overcoming hurdles related to dendrite formation, which is expected to positively impact lithium demand due to increased energy density [9]. Summary by Sections Lithium Market Outlook - The lithium battery production is projected to grow by about 20% year-on-year in 2026, supporting the current pricing and the forecasted lithium up-cycle [1]. EV Market Dynamics - Despite a challenging start to 2026 with significant sales declines, the domestic EV market is expected to grow by 8%, while exports are projected to drive a 15% increase in wholesale sales volumes [2]. BESS Investment Trends - Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are increasing capital expenditure on BESS, with a focus on capacity pricing mechanisms to improve IRRs, which could lead to a rise in BESS deployment to 230 GWh in 2026 [3]. Cost Implications - The increase in battery material costs is expected to raise BEV costs by RMB 4,000 to RMB 7,000, with cell materials constituting about 60% of BESS module costs [4].