大越期货沪铝周报-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Shanghai Aluminum first rose and then fell. The main contract increased by 1.11%, closing at 24,560 yuan/ton on Friday. Under the goal of carbon neutrality, production capacity is controlled in the long - term. Domestic real estate restrains demand, but opportunities for aluminum to replace copper should be noted. Currently, the demand is in the off - season, and later consumption changes should be monitored [3]. - From the perspective of the domestic fundamentals, last week, LME inventory was 495,725 tons, showing a slight increase compared with the previous week, and SHFE weekly inventory increased by 19,718 tons to 216,771 tons [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, Shanghai Aluminum first rose and then fell. The main contract increased by 1.11%, closing at 24,560 yuan/ton on Friday. The demand is in the off - season, and later consumption changes should be monitored. LME inventory was 495,725 tons with a slight increase, and SHFE weekly inventory increased by 19,718 tons to 216,771 tons [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals (Inventory Structure) 3.2.1 Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides the China annual supply - demand balance sheet for aluminum from 2018 to 2024 (in 10,000 tons). In 2018, production was 3,609, net imports were 7.03, apparent consumption was 3,615.03, actual consumption was 3,662.63, and the supply - demand balance was - 47.6. From 2019 to 2023, there were varying degrees of supply - demand deficits, with the largest deficit of - 68.61 in 2019. In 2024, there will be a supply - demand surplus of 15 [11]. 3.3 Market Structure 3.3.1 Spot - Futures Price Difference - No specific content provided 3.3.2 Import Profit - No specific content provided