白糖周报（1.26-1.30）-20260202

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - This week, sugar prices fluctuated slightly and rose. Affected by the overall strengthening of commodity futures in the first half of the week, prices increased. However, sugar lacked its own upward momentum, and the fundamentals did not support a significant increase, so prices fluctuated and declined on Friday [5] - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar, 05, faces significant pressure above the 60 - day moving average and has fallen under short - term pressure. On Friday night, international sugar prices declined again. The low price of imported sugar suppresses the upward momentum of domestic sugar. It is expected to continue to fluctuate around 5200 [6] - Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change in the formula of American cola to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, a surplus in global supply in the new season, the international sugar price falling to around 14.5 cents per pound, the opening of the import profit window, and increased import impact [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - This week, sugar prices fluctuated slightly and rose. Affected by the overall strengthening of commodity futures in the first half of the week, prices increased. However, sugar lacked its own upward momentum, and the fundamentals did not support a significant increase, so prices fluctuated and declined on Friday. Green Pool predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 season, lower than the 2.74 million tons in the 25/26 season. As of the end of December 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 4.7018 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 1.57 million tons, and the sales rate was 33.39%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons, and imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 120,800 tons [5] 2. Daily Prompt - Bullish factors: There is a gap in the domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet, but the medium - to - long - term gap is decreasing. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 5300. Since January 2025, the import tariff on syrup has increased, approaching the out - of - quota import tariff on raw sugar. Trump agreed to the modification of the cola formula, which is long - term bullish for sugar [9] - Bearish factors: The ISO predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 25/26 season. StoneX predicts a global sugar market surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 25/26 season. Czarnikow has raised its forecast for the global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August forecast. Green Pool predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 season, lower than the 2.74 million tons in the 25/26 season. The USDA predicts that global sugar production will increase by 4.7% year - on - year in the 25/26 season, consumption will increase by 1.4%, and there will be a surplus of 11.397 million tons [9] 5. Fundamental Data - 25/26 season supply - demand situation forecasts by institutions in the past 3 months: StoneX (November 1, 2025) predicts a surplus of 3.7 million tons for the 2025/26 season due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) (November 4, 2025) predicts a surplus of 1.63 million tons for the 2025/26 season as global sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% while consumption only increases by 0.6%. Datagro (September 9, 2025) predicts a surplus of 1.53 million tons for the 2025/26 season as the global supply is expected to shift significantly from a shortage in the previous season to a surplus [32] - Sugar production - related data from 2024/25 to 2025/26: Sugarcane and beet planting and harvesting areas, yields, sugar production, imports, consumption, balance changes, international and domestic sugar prices are provided. For example, in the 2025/26 season (January forecast), the sugar production is 11.7 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, and consumption is 15.7 million tons [33] - Imported raw sugar processing cost and profit: The table shows the post - tax cost (50% tariff) of processed imported Brazilian raw sugar and the corresponding profit from December 2025 to January 2026. For example, on December 9, 2025, the post - tax cost was 5132 yuan/ton, and the profit was 618 yuan/ton [37]