沪镍、不锈钢周报-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, and on Friday, they dropped significantly along with gold, silver, and copper. The overall spot trading volume was average. The supply has recovered, and the market is well - supplied. The sentiment in the nickel ore market is bullish, with strong support from the Philippines and Indonesia. Nickel - iron prices continue to rise, and the cost line has increased. Stainless - steel inventory has started to rise, and attention should be paid to potential price reversals. The refined nickel inventory remains at a high level, and the oversupply situation persists. Although the production and sales data of new - energy vehicles are good, the overall boost to nickel demand is limited [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - Viewpoints - Shanghai Nickel: This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, with sufficient supply in the market. The sentiment in the nickel ore market is bullish, nickel - iron prices are rising, the stainless - steel inventory is increasing, and the refined nickel inventory is high. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles have limited impact on nickel demand [8]. - Stainless Steel: The inventory has started to rise, and attention should be paid to potential price reversals. - Strategies - Shanghai Nickel Main Contract: It shows huge fluctuations. It is advisable to wait and see. If it returns above the 20 - day moving average, consider going long. If the 20 - day moving average turns down, be cautious about a trend reversal [9]. - Stainless Steel Main Contract: It is in a downward adjustment. Try shorting with a small position, and stop loss if it returns above the 20 - day moving average [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Weekly Price Changes in the Industry Chain - Nickel Ore: The prices of red - soil nickel ore (CIF) with NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% remained unchanged from last week, with a 0.00% increase. - Sulfuric Acid Nickel: The prices of battery - grade and electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained unchanged from last week, with a 0.00% increase. - Nickel - Iron: The price of low - nickel iron in Shandong increased by 2.90% to 3550 yuan/ton, and the price of high - nickel iron in Shandong increased by 1.92% to 1060 yuan/nickel point. - Electrolytic Nickel: The price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel decreased by 2.62% to 149500 yuan/ton, the price of Shanghai Russian nickel decreased by 2.59% to 142150 yuan/ton, and the Jinchuan ex - factory price decreased by 1.70% to 150100 yuan/ton. - Stainless Steel: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased by 0.17% to 15037.5 yuan/ton [13][14]. - Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Price: The nickel ore price remained the same as last week, and the shipping cost was stable. - Inventory: On January 29, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 11.7234 million wet tons, a decrease of 562,800 wet tons or 4.58% from the previous period. - Import: In December 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 1.9928 million tons, a decrease of 1.3466 million tons or 40.33% from the previous month and an increase of 473,100 tons or 31.13% year - on - year. The total nickel ore import volume from January to December 2025 was 42.2634 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.94%. This week, the quotes from Philippine mines continued to jump, and the sentiment was bullish. The situation in Indonesia also provided strong support [17]. - Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - Price: Nickel prices fluctuated weakly, and the trading volume was average. - Supply: Factory production has recovered, and there is an abundance of imported goods, including low - cost nickel plates from Indonesia. - Long - term and Medium - term Fundamentals: The global nickel market is expected to remain in an oversupply situation under the dominance of low - cost production capacity in Indonesia. The growth of traditional demand such as stainless steel is weak, but the high - nickel trend in the new - energy field will provide key structural support. - Global Supply - Demand Balance: The global nickel supply is expected to exceed demand in 2025, with a surplus of 120,000 nickel tons. - Production: In December 2025, China's refined nickel production was 29,058 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.39%. The estimated production in January 2026 was 31,220 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.02%. - Import and Export: In December 2025, China's refined nickel import volume was 23,394.299 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,724 tons or 84.64% and a year - on - year increase of 5100 tons or 27.88%. The export volume was 13,296.309 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2370 tons or 21.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 3839 tons or 22.40%. - Sulfuric Acid Nickel: In December 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel physical production was 206,100 tons, and the metal production was 45,400 tons. The estimated production in January 2026 was 47,600 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.04%. The quotes for battery - grade and electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained unchanged from last week. - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 2556 tons to 286,284 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 4602 tons to 55,396 tons. The total social inventory of Shanghai nickel increased by 6622 tons to 69,238 tons [22][25][26][27][29][32][35][38]. - Nickel - Iron Market Conditions - Price: The price of low - nickel iron in Shandong increased by 100 yuan/ton to 3550 yuan/ton, and the price of high - nickel iron in Shandong increased by 20 yuan/nickel to 1060 yuan/nickel. - Production: In December 2025, China's nickel - pig iron actual production was 21,400 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.14%. - Import: In December 2025, China's nickel - iron import volume was 996,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 101,000 tons or 11.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1000 tons or 0.1%. The total import volume from January to December 2025 was 11.149 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.172 million tons or 24.2%. - Inventory: In December, the negotiable inventory of nickel - iron was 217,200 physical tons, equivalent to 22,400 tons of nickel [43][44][46][49][52]. - Stainless - Steel Market Conditions - Price: The price of 304 stainless steel (average price of four regions) decreased by 25 yuan/ton from last week. - Production: In December, the stainless - steel crude steel production was 3.2605 million tons, including 940,500 tons of 200 - series, 572,800 tons of 400 - series, and 1.7472 million tons of 300 - series, a month - on - month decrease of 0.82%. - Import and Export: The latest data shows that the stainless - steel import volume was 145,000 tons, and the export volume was 485,000 tons. - Inventory: On January 30, the inventory in Wuxi was 540,600 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 294,000 tons, and the national inventory was 952,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,100 tons. The inventory of 300 - series was 616,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,200 tons [58][59][62][65][68]. - New - Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - Production and Sales: In December, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.718 million and 1.71 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.3% and 7.2%. From January to December, the production and sales were 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 29% and 28.2%. - Power Battery: In December, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries was 201.7 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. The domestic power - battery loading volume was 98.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.9% and a year - on - year increase of 35.1% [72][75]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, nickel prices fluctuated at a high level and then suddenly dropped significantly, following the trend of non - ferrous metals and precious metals. The price fell below the 20 - day moving average. The position showed a certain decline, and long - position holders may have taken profits. The MACD formed a death cross, indicating a possible change in direction. It is necessary to be cautious. If the price can return above the 20 - day moving average, there may be further upside potential; otherwise, a trend reversal should be considered [78]. 3.4 Industry Chain Summary - Fundamental Viewpoints - Nickel Ore: Neutral to bullish. Mine quotes have been rising continuously, and Indonesia also provides strong support. - Nickel - Iron: Neutral to bullish. Nickel - iron prices continue to rise, and the cost line has moved up. - Refined Nickel: Neutral. In the short term, factory production has recovered, and there is an abundance of imported goods, with sufficient market supply and increasing inventory. - Stainless Steel: Neutral. The inventory has started to rise, and attention should be paid to the consumption situation before the Spring Festival. - New - Energy: Neutral. The production data is good, but the substitution of ternary batteries continues [81]. - Trading Strategies - Unilateral Strategy - Shanghai Nickel Main Contract: It shows huge fluctuations. It is advisable to wait and see. If it returns above the 20 - day moving average, consider going long. If the 20 - day moving average turns down, be cautious about a trend reversal. - Stainless Steel Main Contract: It is in a downward adjustment. Try shorting with a small position, and stop loss if it returns above the 20 - day moving average [83][84].