大越期货沥青期货早报-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side shows that the domestic refineries' asphalt production is decreasing, which reduces supply pressure. The demand is currently below the historical average level. The cost side has the support of rising crude oil prices in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt 2603 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3393 - 3455 in the short - term [8][9]. - The factors are mixed. The positives include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support and the reduction of supply pressure due to refinery production cuts. The negatives are the lack of demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward trend in demand with the strengthening expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In February 2026, the domestic refineries' asphalt production is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of the sample is 27.325%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The national sample enterprises' shipment is 214,450 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.80%. The sample enterprises' production is 456,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.20%. The estimated maintenance volume of the sample enterprises' devices is 1.022 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%. Refineries have reduced production this week, and supply pressure may decrease next week [8]. - Demand: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 25.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 is 3.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 is 5.7161%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 14%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 18%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 128.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 85.30%. The weekly delayed - coking profit of Shandong refineries is 16.1943 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 81.75%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [9]. - Basis: On January 30th, the Shandong spot price is 3,260 yuan/ton, and the 03 - contract basis is - 164 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price [9]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 892,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The refinery inventory is 602,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%. The port diluted - asphalt inventory is 840,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 90.91%. The social inventory continues to accumulate, the refinery inventory continues to decline, and the port inventory continues to accumulate [9]. - Market: The MA20 is upward, and the 03 - contract futures price closes above the MA20 [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position decreases [9]. - Expectation: Refineries have reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is difficult to boost, and overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. Inventory continues to decline. Crude oil strengthens, and cost support strengthens in the short - term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, and the asphalt 2603 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3393 - 3455 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Price Overview: The report provides the price, change, and change rate of different asphalt contracts (such as 12 - contract, 11 - contract, etc.), as well as the price, change, and change rate of asphalt in different regions (such as North China, South China, etc.), downstream demand开工率, asphalt coking profit, weekly shipment volume, weekly production, and inventory data [16]. - Basis Trend: It shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026 [19][20]. - Spread Analysis: It includes the spread trends of the main contracts (1 - 6, 6 - 12), the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil, the crude - oil cracking spread, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [22][25][28][32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trend: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt prices in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026 [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026 [37][38]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026 [40][42]. - Supply - side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 to 2026 [43][44]. - Diluted - Asphalt Port Inventory: It shows the historical trends of domestic diluted - asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [46][47]. - Production: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2026 [49][50]. - Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production: It shows the historical trends of Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [52][54]. - Refinery Asphalt Production: It shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [55][57]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2026 [58][59]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: It shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2026 [61][62]. - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipt: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and refinery inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [64][65]. - Social Inventory and Refinery Inventory: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and refinery inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026 [68][69]. - Refinery Inventory - to - Stock Ratio: It shows the historical trends of the refinery inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2026 [72][73]. - Import and Export Situation: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2019 to 2026 [75][76][79]. - Demand - side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Production: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - Apparent Consumption: It shows the historical trends of apparent asphalt consumption from 2019 to 2025 [84][85]. - Downstream Demand: - Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [87][88]. - New Local Special Bonds: It shows the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025 [89]. - Infrastructure Investment Completion: It shows the year - on - year change trends of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [89]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: It shows the historical trends of asphalt - concrete paver sales volume, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales volume, and road - roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [91][92][94]. - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate: - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2026 [96][97]. - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use: It shows the historical trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2026 [99][100]. - Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation: It shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt capacity utilization rate, shoe - material TPR capacity utilization rate, road - modified asphalt capacity utilization rate, and waterproofing - membrane capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2026 [102][103][104]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the monthly asphalt production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, refinery inventory, and diluted - asphalt port inventory from October 2024 to January 2026 [106].