钢矿周报（1.26-1.30）-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, steel and ore prices moved sideways with a narrowing fluctuation range. The fundamentals of steel and ore are weak, the steel mill restocking cycle is nearing its end, and port inventories are continuously accumulating. The downstream demand for rebar has entered a vacuum period, with construction sites mostly shut down, resulting in a decline in apparent demand and an increase in social inventories. In contrast, the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils is in the pre-festival peak season but is also approaching its end. From the mid-week price performance, steel and ore significantly underperformed compared to other varieties. On Friday, precious metal prices tumbled, creating a bearish atmosphere in the overall commodity market, which is expected to intensify the price pressure on steel and ore. The report maintains a view of weak oscillations [69][70]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - One-week data changes: PB powder price decreased from 802 yuan/ton to 790 yuan/ton, a drop of 12 yuan/ton; Barings powder price decreased from 827 yuan/ton to 815 yuan/ton, a drop of 12 yuan/ton; PB powder spot landing profit decreased from 18.82 yuan/ton to 17.41 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.41 yuan/ton; Barings powder spot landing profit decreased from 12.12 yuan/ton to 8.74 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.38 yuan/ton; Australia's shipping volume to China increased from 1326.2 tons to 1434.4 tons, an increase of 108.2 tons; Brazil's shipping volume decreased from 553.7 tons to 544.8 tons, a decrease of 8.9 tons; Imported iron ore port inventory increased from 17496.53 tons to 17758.26 tons, an increase of 261.73 tons; Imported iron ore arrival volume decreased from 2897.7 tons to 2625.5 tons, a decrease of 272.2 tons; Imported iron ore port clearance volume increased from 320.52 tons to 347.71 tons, an increase of 27.19 tons; Iron ore port daily trading volume increased from 79.2 tons to 90.7 tons, an increase of 11.5 tons; Daily average molten iron output decreased from 228.1 tons to 227.98 tons, a decrease of 0.12 tons; Steel enterprise profitability rate decreased from 40.69% to 39.39%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points [6]. 3.2 Market Current Situation Analysis - One-week data changes: Shanghai rebar price decreased from 3270 yuan/ton to 3250 yuan/ton, a drop of 20 yuan/ton; Shanghai hot-rolled coil price decreased from 3290 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, a drop of 20 yuan/ton; Blast furnace operating rate increased from 78.68% to 79%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points; Electric furnace operating rate decreased from 72.68% to 70.66%, a decrease of 2.02 percentage points; Rebar blast furnace profit decreased from 61 yuan/ton to 51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; Hot-rolled coil blast furnace profit decreased from 1 yuan/ton to -13 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton; Rebar electric furnace profit decreased from -70 yuan/ton to -87 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton; Rebar weekly output increased from 199.55 tons to 199.83 tons, an increase of 0.28 tons; Hot-rolled coil weekly output increased from 305.41 tons to 309.21 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons [38]. - One-week data changes: Rebar weekly social inventory increased from 303.12 tons to 326.4 tons, an increase of 23.28 tons; Rebar weekly enterprise inventory increased from 148.98 tons to 149.13 tons, an increase of 0.15 tons; Hot-rolled coil weekly social inventory decreased from 281.14 tons to 278.33 tons, a decrease of 2.81 tons; Hot-rolled coil weekly enterprise inventory increased from 76.64 tons to 77.25 tons, an increase of 0.61 tons; Rebar weekly apparent consumption decreased from 185.52 tons to 176.4 tons, a decrease of 9.12 tons; Hot-rolled coil weekly apparent consumption increased from 309.96 tons to 311.41 tons, an increase of 1.45 tons; Building materials trading volume decreased from 77924 tons to 56046 tons, a decrease of 21878 tons [40]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Data Analysis - Blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates: Blast furnace operating rate increased, while electric furnace operating rate decreased [38]. - Steel production: Rebar and hot-rolled coil production both increased [38]. - Steel profits: Rebar and hot-rolled coil blast furnace and electric furnace profits all decreased [38]. - Steel inventories: Rebar social inventory increased, while hot-rolled coil social inventory decreased; both rebar and hot-rolled coil enterprise inventories increased [40]. - Steel consumption: Rebar apparent consumption decreased, while hot-rolled coil apparent consumption increased [40]. - Building materials trading volume: Decreased [40]. - Steel exports: Not detailed in the data, only presented in a chart [63]. - Real estate data: Real estate development enterprise residential investment completion cumulative year-on-year and commercial housing sales area cumulative year-on-year data are presented in a chart, along with data on new construction, construction, and completion area cumulative year-on-year [64][65]. - Manufacturing PMI: Presented in a chart [67][68].