多空交织，豆粕维持震荡（豆粕周报1.26-1.30）-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is influenced by multiple factors, with both bullish and bearish elements, and is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term. The market is waiting for further guidance on the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, the growth and harvest weather in South American soybean - producing areas, and the arrival of imported soybeans [10][11][13]. - The soybean market is also in a state of short - term volatility. It is affected by the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the supply and demand of domestic soybeans [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Tips No information provided in the report. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases from the US and the weather in US soybean - producing areas are still uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark in the short - term [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in the first quarter, and the soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a relatively high level in January. The soybean meal market has returned to range - bound trading [13]. - The loss of domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal remained good in January, supporting the price of soybean meal. The interaction between the influence of US soybeans and the recovery of soybean meal demand maintains the range - bound trading pattern [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas, and the preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations has an impact. The soybean meal market is expected to maintain range - bound trading in the short - term, waiting for the clarification of US soybean production and the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather in South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in January; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of the harvest weather of US soybeans and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: The increase in the cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [15]. - Bearish factors: The preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations leads to an increase in China's soybean purchases from the US; the increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectations of soybeans [15]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of the weather in US and South American soybean - producing areas and the follow - up of the China - US trade agreement [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the global soybean supply - demand balance sheet from 2016 to 2025, including data on harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [22]. 3.4.2 USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months The report shows the planting area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing volume, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from June 2025 to January 2026 [23]. 3.4.3 US Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress in 2024 The report presents the sowing, growth, and harvest progress of US soybeans in 2024, including data on sowing progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, and harvest rate, as well as comparisons with the same period last year and the five - year average [24][25][26]. 3.4.4 Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress The report provides the planting and harvest progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons, including planting rate and harvest rate, as well as comparisons with the same period last year and the five - year average [27][28][29][30][31]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report. 3.6 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand and Inventory Structure) 3.6.1 US Soybean Market Analysis The impact of the January USDA report is slightly bearish. US soybeans are in a weak - oscillating state in the short - term due to the increase in Brazilian soybean production. The interaction between China's continuous purchase of US soybeans and the good growth and harvest weather of South American soybeans affects the market. In general, the short - term weather uncertainties in South American soybean - producing areas and the follow - up progress of the implementation of the China - US trade agreement influence the market [35]. 3.6.2 Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - Imported soybean arrival: The arrival of imported soybeans has entered a low level at the beginning of the year, and the year - on - year figure has recently decreased [38]. - Oil mill crushing and inventory: The soybean inventory of oil mills has declined from a high level, and the soybean meal inventory has continued to decline. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has returned to a high level, and the soybean meal production in December increased year - on - year. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have continued to decline, and the备货 demand maintains a good expectation [39][41][43]. - Soybean meal transaction: The procurement of domestic mid - and downstream enterprises has rebounded from a low level, and the提货 volume has remained at a relatively high level [47]. - Pig - farming inventory: The pig inventory has increased slightly year - on - year, the sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and declined slightly month - on - month. The pig price has recently declined slightly, and the piglet price has remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has continued to rise. The domestic pig - farming profit is slightly profitable [49][51][53][55]. 3.7 Meal Market Structure - The soybean meal futures have returned to an oscillating state, the spot price has been relatively stable, and the spot premium has remained at a relatively high level [60]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has narrowed, and the price difference between the 2605 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal has declined from a high level [62]. 3.8 Technical Analysis 3.8.1 Soybean Technical Analysis The soybean futures have risen and then fallen, affected by the interaction between the US soybean trend and the relatively strong domestic soybean spot market. The KDJ indicator has crossed and rebounded, and the short - term technical indicators have entered an oscillating and rebounding stage, but the relatively high position of the indicators limits the further upward space. The MACD is oscillating narrowly at a high level, and the short - term has entered a technical oscillating and consolidation stage, with the red energy turning green. Whether it can continue to adjust remains to be observed. The soybean futures have returned to an oscillating state and are waiting for new guidance [67]. 3.8.2 Soybean Meal Technical Analysis The soybean meal futures have risen and then fallen, affected by the interaction between the rapeseed meal trend and the short - term recovery of domestic demand. The KDJ indicator has crossed and declined at a high level, and the short - term has entered a technical oscillating and consolidation stage. The relatively high position of the indicators limits the rebound space. The MACD is oscillating and rebounding at a low level, and the short - term has entered a technical rebound stage, with the red energy narrowing. Whether it can continue to rebound remains to be observed. The soybean meal futures have returned to range - bound trading and are waiting for new guidance from US soybeans [70]. 3.9 Next Week's Concerns - Most important: The growth and harvest weather in South American soybean - producing areas, the follow - up of the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [72]. - Second most important: The domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and the downstream procurement situation [73]. - Less important: Macroeconomic factors and the conflicts in Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine [73]. 3.10 Trading Strategies 3.10.1 Soybean Meal Trading Strategy - Futures: US soybeans are oscillating below the 1100 - point mark in the short - term, and soybean meal is expected to maintain range - bound trading in the short - term. For the M2605 contract, short - term trading within the range of 2700 - 2900 is recommended [17]. - Options strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. 3.10.2 Soybean Trading Strategy - Futures: The A2605 contract of soybeans is expected to oscillate within the range of 4300 - 4500. Short - term trading within the range is recommended [20]. - Options strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [20].