广发期货日报-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Nickel - Refined nickel prices are high, stimulating production, but demand is weak. The nickel - iron market has a large psychological price gap between supply and demand, and transactions are weak. Stainless - steel demand is weak, and downstream purchases of nickel - sulfate are limited. Social inventories are accumulating. Overall, nickel prices are expected to fall first and then fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range of 135,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton [2]. Stainless Steel - Stainless - steel futures have large fluctuations. Cost support is strengthening, but demand is weak. Steel mills are reducing production, and social inventories are slightly accumulating. The market is expected to be in a shock - adjustment state in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 13,500 - 14,800 yuan/ton [5]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market was weak last week. Supply is expected to decline, and demand is relatively optimistic. Social inventories are being depleted, and upstream inventories are low. The price is expected to remain in a relatively strong range, but may fall in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 140,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton [8]. Copper - In the long - term, copper supply is restricted by capital expenditure, and demand is increasing due to AI - related grid upgrades, so the bottom price is expected to rise. In the short - term, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing under the narrowing of CL premium. Attention should be paid to CL premium changes and downstream demand, with the main contract support at 101,500 - 103,000 yuan/ton [9]. Zinc - Zinc ore shortages support prices. Although zinc ore port inventories are accumulating, smelter profits are under pressure, and demand is suppressed by high prices. The overall fundamentals are good, and the price downside is limited, with the main contract support at 25,000 - 25,500 yuan/ton [13]. Tin - In the short - term, tin prices fluctuate greatly due to market sentiment. In the long - term, due to the low elasticity of supply and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy is recommended [14]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market has high price fluctuations. The cost is the main driving factor, and the supply - demand is seasonally weak. It is expected that the ADC12 price will fluctuate in a high - level range, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton [15]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices have risen sharply, driven by macro - factors and geopolitical risks, but have deviated from fundamentals. High prices suppress downstream demand, and inventories are increasing. It is recommended to wait for price stabilization and volatility decline before going long, with price support at 23,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton [16]. Industrial Silicon - In January, the supply and demand of industrial silicon weakened slightly, and it will continue in February. Supply is expected to decline further. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to demand changes [17]. Polysilicon - In February, the supply and demand of polysilicon are weak. Production is expected to decrease, and the inventory accumulation slope is slowing down. The 45,000 yuan/ton level is expected to have support. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to production cuts and downstream demand recovery [18]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Nickel: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.25% to 146,150 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of futures decreased by 515.79% to - 1,638 yuan/ton [2]. - Stainless Steel: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price decreased by 0.69% to 14,400 yuan/ton; the spot - futures price difference increased by 405.88% to 430 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium Carbonate: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 4.46% to 160,500 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 286.79% to 12,300 yuan/ton [8]. - Copper: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.22% to 104,410 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference decreased by 45.25% to 3,631 yuan/ton [9]. - Zinc: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 1.98% to 25,790 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss increased by 317 yuan/ton to - 2,126 yuan/ton [13]. - Tin: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.27% to 428,650 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss increased by 4.65% to - 10,538.60 yuan/ton [14]. - Aluminum Alloy: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price decreased by 0.81% to 24,350 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan broken primary aluminum increased by 16.73% to 3,174 yuan/ton [15]. - Aluminum: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.80% to 24,660 yuan/ton; the electrolytic aluminum import profit and loss increased by 302.8 yuan/ton to - 1,779 yuan/ton [16]. - Industrial Silicon: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 183.33% to - 75 yuan/ton [17]. - Polysilicon: The average price of N - type re - feed material decreased by 2.29% to 51,300 yuan/kg; the N - type material basis increased by 31.44% to 4,160 yuan/ton [18]. Month - to - Month Price Difference - Nickel: 2602 - 2603 decreased by 390 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton [2]. - Stainless Steel: 2602 - 2603 decreased by 155 yuan/ton to - 275 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium Carbonate: 2602 - 2603 increased by 200 yuan/ton to - 780 yuan/ton [8]. - Copper: 2602 - 2603 decreased by 70 yuan/ton to - 270 yuan/ton [9]. - Zinc: 2602 - 2603 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [13]. - Tin: 2602 - 2603 decreased by 50 yuan/ton to - 1,000 yuan/ton [14]. - Aluminum Alloy: 2602 - 2603 increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [15]. - Aluminum: AL 2602 - 2603 increased by 245 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [16]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract increased by 1.88% to 8,955 yuan/ton; the difference between the current month and the first - following month decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [17]. - Polysilicon: The difference between the current month and the first - following month decreased by 775 yuan/ton to - 1,230 yuan/ton [18]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - Nickel: China's refined nickel production increased by 26.10% to 31,400 tons; SHFE inventory increased by 9.06% to 25,396 tons [2]. - Stainless Steel: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 0.92% to 176.32 million tons; 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 0.82% to 45.77 million tons [5]. - Lithium Carbonate: In December, lithium carbonate production decreased by 1.31% to 99,200 tons; total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 12.23% to 64,560 tons [8]. - Copper: In January, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.10% to 117.93 million tons; domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 6.85% to 67.33 million tons [9]. - Zinc: In January, refined zinc production increased by 1.54% to 56.06 million tons; China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 1.35% to 11.72 million tons [13]. - Tin: In December, tin ore imports remained unchanged at 17,637 tons; SHFE inventory increased by 7.70% to 10,468 tons [14]. - Aluminum Alloy: In December, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 6.16% to 64 million tons; recycled aluminum alloy weekly social inventory decreased by 2.11% to 4.64 million tons [15]. - Aluminum: In January, alumina production decreased by 1.78% to 738.56 million tons; China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 5.25% to 78.2 million tons [16]. - Industrial Silicon: National industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15% to 39.71 million tons; social inventory decreased by 0.36% to 55.4 million tons [17]. - Polysilicon: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 12.73% to 10.08 million tons; polysilicon inventory increased by 0.91% to 33.3 million tons [18].