大越期货甲醇早报-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic methanol market is likely to fluctuate at a low level. Inland methanol is expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation due to the co - existence of positive and negative factors, and the port spot market is expected to fluctuate within the range below the pressure level of 2400 without macro - level speculation points. The price of methanol this week is expected to fluctuate strongly, with MA2605 operating in the range of 2280 - 2385 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Daily Hints - The fundamentals of methanol 2605 are neutral. The inland market has a weak supply - demand situation, while the port market's pressure boundary has risen to 2400. The basis shows that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish. As of January 29, 2026, the social inventory in East and South China ports has decreased slightly, and the overall available circulating goods in coastal areas have also decreased, both being bearish. The 20 - day line is upward and the price is above the average, which is bullish. The main position is net - short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish. The expected price of methanol will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 2280 - 2385 [5]. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Positive Factors: Some devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinye have stopped production. The methanol production start - up rate in Iran has decreased, and port inventory is at a low level. A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has produced products on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in the second half of this month. Northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - Negative Factors: Some previously shut - down devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production. There is a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the start - up rate of MTBE has dropped significantly. Coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling goods. Some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. Fundamental Data - Price Data: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 685 yuan/ton, the price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2270 yuan/ton, the CFR price of the Chinese main port is 268 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2313 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the futures is 2320 yuan/ton, the number of registered warrants is 7153, and the effective forecast is 0. In terms of the spread structure, the basis is - 50 yuan/ton, and the import spread is - 7 yuan/ton [8]. - Start - up Rate Data: The weighted average national start - up rate is 74.90%, showing a decrease of 3.81% compared to last week. The start - up rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all declined [8]. - Inventory Data: The inventory in East China ports is 59.58 tons, showing an increase of 0.79 tons compared to last week, while the inventory in South China ports is 39.8 tons, showing a decrease of 3.4 tons compared to last week [8]. Maintenance Status - Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance: Multiple domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, with different maintenance start and end times and losses. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's 100,000 - ton/year coke - oven gas - based methanol device has been under maintenance since the first half of November 2024, and the end time is to be determined, with a weekly maintenance loss of 1950 tons [59]. - Foreign Methanol Device Operation: Some Iranian methanol plants are in the process of resuming production, while some plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar and other countries are operating normally. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have resumed one set, but it needs to be verified [60]. - Olefin Device Operation: Some olefin plants are in maintenance, while some are operating stably. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants have been shut down for maintenance since March 15, and the expected maintenance period is 45 days, while Yan'an Energy and Chemical's methanol and olefin plants are operating stably [61].