中加贸易关系缓和影响过去，菜粕回归震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The price of rapeseed meal has returned to a volatile pattern after the impact of the easing of China-Canada trade relations. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term and a range-bound pattern in the medium term, influenced by factors such as the improvement of China-Canada trade relations, the off-season of domestic rapeseed meal supply and demand, and the trend of soybean meal [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Prompt - Not provided in the report. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off-season after the long holiday, with short-term supply in the spot market expected to be tight and demand gradually decreasing, suppressing the market outlook. The export of Canadian rapeseed is affected by China-Canada trade issues, reducing the expected domestic supply [10]. - The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China has improved China-Canada trade relations in the short term, and the mutual tariffs are expected to be gradually cancelled. China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume, and the future development of China-Canada trade relations needs further clarification [10]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [10]. - The Russia-Ukraine conflict is still ongoing, with the reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which provides support for commodities [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: The demand for rapeseed meal in China is expected to remain good after the Spring Festival, and oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory [11]. - Bearish factors: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal has entered the short-term off-season, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume due to the improvement of China-Canada trade relations [11]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - Rapeseed arrival: Imports of rapeseed will start arriving in February, and the import cost has rebounded from a low level [19]. - Oil mill crushing and inventory: The amount of rapeseed processed by oil mills has increased slightly, with rapeseed inventory at a low level and rapeseed meal inventory also low [20][22]. - Rapeseed meal trading: Not provided in the report. - Aquaculture: Aquatic fish prices have declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [30]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in, indicating a bearish sentiment [8]. Rapeseed Meal Trading Strategy - Futures: In the short term, it will return to a range-bound pattern. For the RM2605 contract, it will fluctuate between 2200 and 2400. Short-term trading or waiting is recommended, with range-bound operations as the main strategy [13]. - Options: Sell out-of-the-money put options [13]. Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal has returned to a volatile pattern after the bearish impact of the improvement of China-Canada trade relations. The future trend depends on the quantity of imported Canadian rapeseed [41]. - The KDJ indicator has oscillated and declined from a high level, and the short-term market has entered a technical consolidation stage. The indicator at a medium-high level limits the room for further recovery, and it remains to be seen whether it will continue to rebound or decline [41]. - The MACD has rebounded from a low level, with a short-term technical rebound and the green energy turning red. The future trend depends on the import policy of Canadian rapeseed [41]. - The indicators suggest that rapeseed meal will be weakly volatile in the short term and moderately bullish in the medium term, mainly driven by policy changes and the short-term trend of soybean meal. The future trend needs further guidance from policy and soybean meal [41]. Next Week's Focus Points - Most important: The growth and harvesting weather conditions in South American soybean producing areas, the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [43]. - Second important: The domestic demand for soybean meal and aquaculture, and the inventory of rapeseed meal in domestic oil mills and downstream procurement [43]. - Third important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel-Palestine conflict [43].