大越期货豆粕早报-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - M2605 Soybean Meal: Expected to oscillate between 2740 and 2800. Influenced by the US soybean trend and end - of - year demand, it will maintain a short - term oscillating pattern due to mixed news [9]. - A2605 Soybeans: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4320 and 4420. Affected by factors such as the US - China trade agreement and Brazilian soybean imports, it will maintain a short - term range - bound oscillation [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean Meal M2605: In the short - term, it may maintain an oscillating pattern. The US soybean trend, end - of - year demand, and news factors will all have an impact. The price is neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory is bearish, the market trend is neutral, the main position is bearish [9]. - Soybean A2605: In the short - term, it will maintain a range - bound oscillation. Influenced by the US - China trade agreement and Brazilian soybean imports. The price is neutral, the basis is neutral, the inventory is bearish, the market trend is bullish, the main position is bullish [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the US - China tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market will oscillate above the thousand - point mark in the short - term [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in the first quarter. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained high in January. The soybean meal will return to a range - bound oscillation in the short - term [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits leads to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal remained good in January, supporting the price expectation. Affected by the US soybean trend and the recovery of soybean meal demand, it will maintain an oscillating pattern [12]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remained high. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean production area still exists, and the preliminary agreement in the US - China trade negotiation will affect the soybean meal to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short - term [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish Factors: The preliminary agreement in the US - China trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still variables in the weather in the South American soybean production area [13]. - Bearish Factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in January; Brazilian soybeans have started sowing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [13]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary US - China trade agreement [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish Factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [14]. - Bearish Factors: Brazilian soybeans have a bumper harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [14]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the US - China trade tariff game [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From January 22 to January 30, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated slightly, and the trading volume also fluctuated. The average transaction price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually narrowed [15]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data: From January 23 to January 30, the futures prices of soybeans and soybean meal fluctuated, and the spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal were relatively stable [17]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data: From January 21 to January 30, the warehouse receipts of soybean No.1 decreased, the warehouse receipts of soybean No.2 decreased to zero, and the warehouse receipts of soybean meal increased [19]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2016 to 2025 show the changes in harvest area, output, inventory, and other indicators over the years [31][32]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina from 2023/24, the planting, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US in 2024, and the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina from 2024/25 to 2025/26 are presented [33][34][38]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from June 2025 to January 2026 show the changes in planting area, yield, output, and other indicators of US soybeans, as well as the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [43]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions in soybean meal increased, and the funds flowed out [9]. - The main long positions in soybeans decreased, and the funds flowed out [10]. 3.6 Other Market Conditions - The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year [44]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans entered a low level at the beginning of the year and decreased year - on - year recently [46]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the soybean meal inventory continued to decline [47]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills returned to a high level, and the soybean meal output in December increased year - on - year [49]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills continued to decline, and the stocking demand maintained a good expectation [51]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated and declined following the US soybeans, and the market profit fluctuated slightly [53]. - The pig inventory increased slightly year - on - year, the sow inventory decreased year - on - year and declined slightly month - on - month [55]. - The pig price declined slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [57]. - The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs continued to rise [59]. - The domestic pig - raising profit was slightly profitable [61].