大越期货甲醇周报-20260202

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint Next week, the domestic methanol market is likely to experience low - level fluctuations. Inland, methanol factories are mainly focusing on active sales to maintain inventory before the Spring Festival, with relatively loose supply. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, some traditional downstream industries are gradually shutting down for holidays, and the fundamentals remain weak, suppressing the market. Meanwhile, some downstream industries still have restocking needs, and the methanol prices in production and sales regions are at the bottom, with strong freight rates supporting the arrival prices in sales regions. Under the influence of both long and short factors, the inland methanol market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. In ports, the pressure boundary has risen to 2400. Without macro - level hype points, the port spot market is expected to fluctuate within the range below the pressure level next week [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - Next week, the domestic methanol market is likely to have low - level fluctuations. Inland market will be affected by supply and demand changes, and the port market will be restricted by the pressure boundary of 2400 [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - Domestic Methanol Spot Price: From January 23 to January 30, prices in different regions showed various changes. Jiangsu increased by 0.31%, Fujian increased by 1.32%, while Hebei decreased by 0.49%, and prices in Shandong (Lunan) and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [6]. - Methanol Basis: The spot price increased by 0.31%, and the futures price increased by 0.96%. The basis decreased by 15 [8]. - Methanol Production Profits by Process: Coal - based production profit decreased by 49, natural gas - based production profit remained unchanged, and coke - oven gas - based production profit decreased by 324 [10]. - Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load: Nationally, the load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and in the northwest region, it decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [12]. - Foreign Methanol Prices and Spreads: CFR China increased by 0.37%, CFR Southeast Asia increased by 0.31%, and the spread remained unchanged [15]. - Methanol Import Spread: The import cost increased by 0.01%, and the import spread increased by 7 [18]. - Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices: Prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged, with a weekly change of 0.00% [25]. - Formaldehyde Production and Load: The production profit increased by 4, and the load increased by 0.01% to 30.98% [26]. - Dimethyl Ether Production and Load: The production profit increased by 14, and the load increased by 1.45% to 9.79% [28]. - Acetic Acid Production and Load: The production profit decreased by 4, and the load decreased by 1.29% to 72.32% [31]. - MTO Production and Load: The production profit decreased by 22, and the load decreased by 2.18% to 84.18% in the East China region [35]. - Methanol Port Inventory: In the East China region, it increased by 0.79 to 59.58, and in the South China region, it decreased by 3.40 to 39.8 [36]. - Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts: Warehouse receipts decreased by 7.64% to 7153, and effective forecasts remained at 0 [39]. 3.3 Maintenance Status - Domestic Methanol Plants: Many plants in different regions such as the Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast are in various states of maintenance, including planned and unplanned shutdowns, with different durations and production losses [42]. - Foreign Methanol Plants: Plants in countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States have different operating conditions, including restarts, normal operations, and planned shutdowns [43]. - Olefin Plants with Methanol - related Operations: Some olefin plants in the Northwest, East, Central, Shandong, Northeast, and other regions are in operation, maintenance, or have production plans, with different operating statuses and production capacities [44].