氯碱月报：SH：需求端支撑乏力，预计价格反弹后重回弱势，V：情绪推涨盘面，价格重心上移-20260202

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Caustic Soda: In January, affected by the low - price area in Shandong, the prices of caustic soda in surrounding provinces and cities declined. The average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong in January was 656.61 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8.41% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.97%. In February, the supply - demand contradiction of domestic caustic soda remained prominent. It was expected that the caustic soda price would run weakly before the Spring Festival [3]. - PVC: In January, the supply - demand pattern of PVC was weak. The price increase was mainly due to policy stimulus. In February, the PVC industry faced the pressure of pre - Spring Festival shipments. The price was expected to maintain a weak bottom - shock in the first half of the month and gradually stabilize in the second half [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Caustic Soda - Price: In January, the average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 656.61 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8.41% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.97%. In Jiangsu, it was 771.67 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.89% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.38% [3]. - Supply: In January, the caustic soda production was 379.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. The inventory in East China and Shandong decreased [24]. - Demand: In February, non - aluminum demand slowed down during the Spring Festival. Although the demand for alumina was relatively stable, it could not substantially support the demand for caustic soda [3]. - Export: In December 2025, the import volume of liquid caustic soda was 62.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 225.8% and a month - on - month increase of 40.7%. The export volume was 30.96 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4% and a month - on - month increase of 69.3% [49]. PVC - Price: In January, the PVC price was mainly driven by policy stimulus. In February, the price was expected to have limited increase, with a weak bottom - shock in the first half and a potential stabilization in the second half [3]. - Supply: In January, the PVC production was estimated to be 214.71 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.42%. The capacity utilization rate was 78.98%, a 0.56 - percentage - point increase from the previous period [68]. - Demand: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, faced great pressure. The real - estate sector continued to have a negative impact on demand. The domestic demand did not improve significantly [73]. - Inventory: The total PVC inventory was still at the highest level in recent years [81]. - Export: In December 2025, the PVC export volume was 31.41 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.07% and a year - on - year increase of 35.02%. The import volume was 2.46 tons, a month - on - month increase of 57.14% and a year - on - year increase of 12.99% [97].