工业硅月报：供需双减，价格低位震荡-20260202

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In January, both supply and demand weakened slightly, and this trend continued in February. It is expected that both production and demand will decline significantly. This is due to production cut plans of major industrial silicon and polysilicon producers, fewer production days in February, and early holidays during the Spring Festival [4]. - In February, spot trading is expected to weaken, and the window for futures trading is short. Supply of industrial silicon is expected to further decline. A large - scale enterprise in Xinjiang plans to cut production by half starting from the end of January, which may lead to a reduction of about 5 - 6 million tons in February [4][8]. - Demand is likely to continue to decline in February, but the month - on - month change is small. Polysilicon production is expected to drop to 8 - 8.5 million tons, and organic silicon production is expected to be about 17 - 18 million tons [4]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, with the main price range between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the decline in industrial silicon production and changes in demand - side production [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot and Futures Price Trends - In January, industrial silicon spot prices remained stable. As of January 30, 2026, the price of East China oxygen - containing Si5530 was 9,250 yuan/ton, Si4210 was 9,650 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8,700 yuan/ton, all unchanged from the previous period [16][17]. - Spot prices were stable, while futures showed a strong - oscillating trend. At the end of January, the spot - futures arbitrage space opened up [27]. 2. Supply Situation Analysis - In December, industrial silicon production decreased slightly to 3.971 million tons, and the cumulative production from January to December 2025 was 42.678 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13%. Production in January and February is expected to decline further. A large enterprise in Xinjiang plans to cut production by half, which may lead to a reduction of about 5 - 6 million tons in February [40]. - The total production of four regions was 55,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 595 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2,150 tons. Xinjiang's production decreased by 600 tons [42][46]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - In January, the average spot price of polysilicon decreased, and the price difference between rod - shaped silicon and granular silicon widened. In February, polysilicon production is expected to be further reduced to 8.2 - 8.5 million tons [55]. - In January, silicon wafer production is expected to increase by 5% to over 44GW, and inventory increased by 4.1GW to 27.29GW. Silicon wafer prices decreased, while battery and component prices increased [56][62]. - In January, organic silicon production is expected to decrease by more than 1 million tons, and continue to decline in February. The average price of DMC rose to 13,900 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 300 yuan/ton [69][74]. - The operating rates of aluminum alloy and recycled aluminum alloy fluctuated and declined, and prices increased following the aluminum price. In January, aluminum alloy production is expected to increase slightly, while exports declined [80][87]. - In December, exports increased by 8% month - on - month to 59,000 tons, and the export volume of primary polysiloxane of organic silicon was 51,300 tons [94]. 4. Cost - Profit Analysis - The prices of silica and Xinjiang clean coal decreased by 3% and 13% respectively, while the prices of petroleum coke and Ningxia clean coal increased by 20% and 9% respectively [99]. - Electricity prices are expected to remain high during the dry season from January to February [101]. - The cost of Si5530 is about 9,800 - 12,500 yuan/ton, and the cost of Si4210 is about 10,100 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Profits fluctuate around the break - even point, with high - cost producers incurring losses and low - cost producers making profits [109][115]. 5. Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Changes - In January, industrial silicon futures warehouse receipts increased by 3,424 lots to 13,655 lots, equivalent to 68,000 tons. Social inventory decreased by 300,000 tons to 5.54 million tons, factory inventory increased by 660,000 tons to 2.09 million tons, and the total inventory was about 8.3 million tons [123].