瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai zinc will undergo wide - range adjustments, and attention should be paid to the 24,000 support level [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,320 yuan; the 03 - 04 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,370 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 42 US dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 215,326 lots, a decrease of 17,909 lots [3] - The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 16,607 lots, an increase of 5,829 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, with no change [3] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 73,151 tons, a decrease of 3,160 tons; the LME inventory is 110,000 tons, an increase of 250 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 820 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 24,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,170 yuan [3] - The basis of the ZN main contract is 455 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 8.41 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.97 US dollars [3] - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 22,370 yuan/ton, an increase of 370 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 7,700 tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons [3] - The global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1.0627 million tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons, a decrease of 53,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons, a decrease of 9,469.07 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons, a decrease of 15,548.89 tons [3] - The social inventory of zinc is 112,200 tons, an increase of 5,800 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons [3] - The monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 603.4813 million square meters, an increase of 208.942 million square meters [3] - The monthly automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, a decrease of 107,500 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, an increase of 6.6029 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 43.36%, an increase of 7.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 43.35%, an increase of 7.27 percentage points [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 39.69%, an increase of 5.89 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 18.58%, an increase of 3.75 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - In January, some manufacturing industries entered the traditional off - season, and the effective market demand was still insufficient. The manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the prosperity level decreased compared with the previous month, but production continued to expand [3] - In January, affected by factors such as the decline in the prosperity of the construction industry, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the overall prosperity level of the non - manufacturing industry declined [3] - The US Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill, but a short - term government shutdown is unavoidable. House Speaker Johnson said he is "confident" that the government will resume operation before Tuesday [3] - Trump said that Walsh did not promise him an interest rate cut, but he "certainly wants an interest rate cut" [3] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - The upstream zinc ore import volume is high, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters to purchase domestic ores has increased, and the processing fees at home and abroad have significantly decreased. The profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, and it is expected that production will continue to be restricted [3] - Recently, the LME zinc price has corrected, the Shanghai - LME ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again [3] - On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually turning to the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening. However, policy support in areas such as the automobile industry brings some highlights [3] - The downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has risen, downstream purchases have become lighter, the spot premium has decreased, and the domestic social inventory has remained stable with a slight increase. The LME zinc inventory has remained stable, and the spot premium has remained at a low level [3] - Technically, the price has declined with increasing volume and decreasing open interest, and the bullish sentiment has decreased [3]