沪铜产业日报-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract hit the daily limit down, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The raw material side of the fundamentals shows that the TC spot index of copper concentrate continues to decline, and the supply of copper ore remains tight. Due to geopolitical impacts, the raw material cost support logic remains strong. On the supply side, restricted by the tight raw material supply and approaching holidays, the long - holiday factor may lead to a certain reduction in copper smelting, so the domestic copper production volume may slightly shrink. On the demand side, after the recent significant fluctuations and obvious correction of copper prices, downstream enterprises may have a certain demand for bargain - hunting inventory replenishment. However, limited by the consumption off - season and the upstream's sentiment of holding back sales at high prices, the actual transaction situation remains cautious. In terms of inventory, the domestic copper inventory shows a seasonal accumulation. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and cautious demand. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.34, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.0378. The sentiment in the options market is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are below the 0 - axis, and the green bars are expanding. The conclusion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 98,580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,100 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 12,710 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 447.50 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 300 yuan/ton, an increase of 520 yuan. The open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 194,809 lots, a decrease of 28,125 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 70,006 lots, a decrease of 2,533 lots. The LME copper inventory is 174,975 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 233,004 tons, an increase of 7,067 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 41,800 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 158,527 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 100,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,950 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 100,985 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,485 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 27 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 39.50 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12.50 US dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is 1,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,150 yuan. The LME copper spot - forward spread (0 - 3) is - 89.88 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.88 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, an increase of 17.80 million tons. The copper smelting TC is - 49.84 US dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 0.05 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 94,810 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 1,820 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 95,510 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 1,820 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 2,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan; the processing fee for blister copper in the north is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, an increase of 9.00 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 71,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 85,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,100 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Applications - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 560.39 billion yuan, an increase of 77.956 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 8,278.814 billion yuan, an increase of 419.724 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, an increase of 415,345,500 pieces [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 40.65%, an increase of 2.84 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 32.66%, an increase of 2.64 percentage points. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 37.08%, a decrease of 0.0350 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.34, a decrease of 0.0378 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In January, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8 percentage points; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points. The National Bureau of Statistics pointed out that in January, some manufacturing industries entered the traditional off - season, and due to the insufficient effective market demand, the manufacturing prosperity level declined. Affected by factors such as the decline in the prosperity of the construction industry, the non - manufacturing business activity index in January declined, while the financial market was highly active. - US President Trump officially nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman to succeed Powell, whose term will end in May. This nomination needs Senate approval. However, Senate Democratic Leader Schumer and Republican Senator Tillis have said they will block Warsh's nomination unless the investigation against Powell is withdrawn. Democratic Senator Warren also said that Warsh is not an ideal candidate for the Federal Reserve Chairman. During his tenure at the Federal Reserve, Warsh held a hawkish monetary policy stance, but in recent years he has turned to support Trump's tariff policy and the stance of accelerating interest rate cuts. Some analysts pointed out that if Warsh ultimately leads the Federal Reserve, the market may see a significant adjustment of the Federal Reserve's policy framework. Deutsche Bank believes that Warsh's policy proposals may present a unique combination of "interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction" - Federal Reserve's Bostic said that the Federal Reserve does not need to cut interest rates now and should be more patient on interest rate issues; Waller said that the current interest rate range is 3.50% - 3.75%, and the neutral interest rate may be around 3%; Musalem said that further interest rate cuts are not advisable, the current policy is neutral, and the economy does not need stimulation - Many domestic automakers announced their January sales, with most achieving year - on - year sales growth. Specifically, Leapmotor delivered 32,059 vehicles in January, a year - on - year increase of 27%; Xiaomi Auto's delivery volume exceeded 39,000 vehicles; NIO delivered 27,182 new vehicles, an increase of 96.1%; Great Wall Motor's sales reached 90,300 vehicles, an increase of 11.59%; Seres' new - energy vehicle sales reached 43,034 vehicles, an increase of 140.33%; GAC Group's vehicle sales reached 116,600 vehicles, an increase of 18.47%; Li Auto delivered 27,668 new vehicles, a decline of more than 7% - The analysis of the State Taxation Administration shows that in 2025, driven by the trade - in policy, the sales revenues of the daily household appliance retail industry such as refrigerators, the kitchenware and sanitary ware retail industry such as gas stoves, and the communication equipment retail industry such as mobile phones increased by 17.4%, 12.9%, and 18.6% year - on - year respectively, and consumer demand accelerated. The trade - in action strongly promoted rural consumption. In 2025, the order volume of household appliances in rural areas and below increased by 64% year - on - year, and the number of users increased by 38% [2]